Commodity prices are continuing their general rise, driven by the return of confidence, strong Asian demand and the weakness of the dollar. This increase concerned both energy and non-energy products. The price index for energy products, calculated by the World Bank, rose by 6.4% in November and that for non-energy products by 4.4%.

The general rise in commodity prices continues. An increase due to the return of confidence, strong Asian demand and a weak dollar, indicates the Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (Ministry of Finance) in its latest economic report. This increase concerned both energy and non-energy products. Indeed, the price index of energy products, calculated by the World Bank, marked an increase of 6.4% in November. Similarly, the price index for non-energy products increased for the seventh consecutive month in November (+4.4%), driven by food products (+5.6%), base metals (+ 6%) and fertilizers (+0.7%).

Thus, oil prices (Brent) reached 43.2 dollars per barrel on average in November, up 6.8% over one month and 85% since their April low. This rise accelerated to reach 52 dollars on December 18, their highest level in 9 months, marking a rise of 20% over one month. A rebound attributed to "effective management of the OPEC + supply, stronger Asian demand, and more promising prospects for global demand following the deployment of Covid-19 vaccines", notes the Depf. Indeed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase in global oil demand which would rebound by 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2021, after a fall of 8.8 mbd in 2020. , because of the pandemic. Note, however, that since the start of 2020, Brent prices have recorded an average of $42, down 35% year-on-year.

Same upward trend for butane gas prices, which stood at 550 dollars per tonne on December 18, their highest level since February, up 32% over one month, bringing their gains to 12% since the start of 2020. This surge explained by an increase in winter seasonal demand and supply disruptions. Since the start of 2020, Butane prices have averaged $373 per tonne, down 11% year-on-year.

Crude phosphate, meanwhile, rose 3.1% over one month and 17% since its 13-year low in April, posting 82.5 dollars a tonne in November. DAP (fertilizer) prices are also up monthly in November, albeit slightly (0.7% to $360 a tonne), taking their gains to 51% since their 14-year low in December 2019. DAP prices are supported by a recovery in demand, particularly from India, explains the Depf, noting that over the first eleven months of 2020, the average prices of raw phosphate and DAP fell by 16% and 2% respectively over one year. Soft wheat prices have not escaped this general increase in commodity prices. They averaged $246 a tonne in November, up 1% month on month and 24% since their low in June. They are driven by less favorable growing conditions in Argentina and parts of Europe, North America and the Black Sea. At the end of November, average wheat prices recorded 226 dollars per tonne, up 8% year-on-year.

According to the FAO, world wheat production in 2020/2021 will stagnate at 761.7 million tonnes. As for world raw sugar prices, they increased by 3% over one month in November and by 39% since their trough in April, with an average of 312 dollars per tonne. This trend is expected to continue, due to a forecast shortfall in world sugar supply in 2020/2021 of 3.5 million tonnes. However, this increase should be curbed by the large supplies in India, the world's second largest producer.