The European stock markets are expected to decline in the wake of the first round of the presidential election

Eurostoxx 50 points at 3,858.37 +1.48%, the CAC 40 at 6,548.22 points +1.34%, the DAX 40 at 14,283.67 points +1.46%, the FTSE 100 at 7.669.56 points +1.56%, the SMI at 12,507.69 points +1.09%, the AEX at 724.75 points +1.15%, the BEL 20 at 4.221.39 points +1.40%, the IBEX 35 at 8,606.40 points +1.64%, the DJIA at 34,721.12 points +0.40%, the Nasdaq at 13.711.00 points -1.34%, the S&P 500 at 4,488.28 points -0.27% and the Nikkei 225 at 26,761.97 points -0.83% (price at 7:25)

EUR/USD is trading at 1.0885 +0.08%, EUR/JPY at 135.93 +0.55% and USD/JPY at 124.88 +0.46%

Investors will react on Monday to the results of the first round of the presidential election. With 28% to 29% of the votes cast, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron came out on top in the election, ahead of the candidate of theNational Rally, Marine Le Pen, who scored 22 to 24%, and the candidate of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, credited with about 21% of the vote.

Polls for the second round, which will take place on April 24, show Emmanuel Macron winning the duel with Marine Le Pen by a narrow margin.

Guillaume Faury, executive chairman of Airbus, confirmed the aircraft manufacturer's financial targets for 2022 despite the impact of the war in Ukraine. Airbus still expects this year an operating profit, or Ebit, of 5.5 billion euros and the delivery of 720 aircraft. The executive added that the production rate of the A320, the flagship model of the aircraft manufacturer, would be increased to 65 aircraft per month in the summer of 2023, against 45 copies currently. Airbus also announced Friday evening that it had received 104 new aircraft orders and delivered 63 aircraft to 38 customers in March.

TF1 and M6 have signed agreements with the Altice Media group to sell the digital terrestrial television channels TFX and 6ter in the event of the completion of their merger project. Both transactions remain subject to the approval of the French Competition Authority (Autorité de la Concurrence) and the French Audiovisual and Digital Communication Regulatory Authority (Autorité de Régulation de la Communication Audiovisuelle et Numérique - Arcom), as well as the completion of the proposed merger between TF1 and M6.

SHARES

European equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday, ahead of a week marked by the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, initial U.S. corporate earnings for the first quarter and U.S. inflation figures.

At around 7:30 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was down 36 points, or 0.5%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 40 contract was down 138 points, or 1%, and the FTSE 100 contract was down 35 points, or 0.5%. European indexes had finished strongly up on Friday, supported by the decline of the euro.

The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia continue to worry the markets, while the European Union's foreign ministers are meeting on Monday to discuss a new set of measures targeting Moscow. However, the 27 countries remain divided on an embargo on Russian oil and gas, as some countries, including Germany and Italy, are highly dependent on Russian hydrocarbons.

The World Bank, for its part, indicated over the weekend that it expected a 45.1% drop in Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP).The World Bank said over the weekend that it expected Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 45.1% this year, although the extent of the contraction could ultimately depend on the duration of the war.

In the United States, Wall Street ended mixed on Friday, after a sharp rise in bond yields due to expectations of a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% to 34,721.52 points, but the S&P 500 lost 0.3% to 4,488.38 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gave up 1.3% to 13,711 points.

In Asia, the major stock markets were down late Monday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index lost 0.7%. The Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was down 2.7% and the Shanghai Composite was down 2%.

Consumer prices in China rose at their fastest pace in three months in March, due to supply problems related to containment measures against Covid-19 and rising energy prices, according to official data released Monday.

As a result, inflation accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year, after 0.9% in February. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal were expecting a 1.2% rise in consumer prices in March.

BONDS

U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs on Friday and the two-year bond rate recorded its biggest five-week gain in more than a decade, as investors continued to assess the value of the U.S. dollar. its biggest five-week gain in more than a decade, as investors continue to assess the likely path of Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.

Yields continued to rise on Monday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 2.773% from 2.659% on Friday night. The yield on the two-year security is at 2.582%, up from 2.466% Friday.

Last week, yields on long-dated Treasuries rose more than those on short-dated securities, ending a brief inversion of the curve. A persistent inversion in this part of the yield curve is considered a harbinger of a recession.

CURRENCY

The euro is rising Monday morning against the dollar.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to change its monetary policy or forward guidance on Thursday, says Capital Economics economist Jonathan Goltermann. However, ECB members are concerned about inflation and Goltermann believes they will end asset purchases and raise interest rates in July. These decisions will provide only limited support for the euro, the economist believes.

The ECB is expected to start raising rates in the third quarter and the deposit rate is expected to move into positive territory in early 2023, said Ulrich Leuchtmann of Commerzbank.

However, the ECB may halt its rate hike cycle sometime in 2023 due to a slowdown in inflation, while the Federal Reserve may raise rates more than expected, which could weaken the euro against the dollar, he adds. Commerzbank expects the euro to reach $1.15 in March 2023, up from $1.0884 Monday morning, before falling back to $1.12 in December 2023.

OIL

Oil prices are losing ground Monday morning as the confinement of part of the population in China for health reasons may weigh on demand.

According to Edward Moya, market analyst at Oanda, crude prices are likely to lose another 3% to 5% until the confinements related to the Covid-19 pandemic in China are lifted.

The price of Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) could find support around $95 a barrel, but the strong dollar could weaken commodity prices, which would then suffer further declines, Oanda added.

At 7:20 a.m., the June Brent contract was down $2.22, or 2.2 percent, at $100.56 a barrel, while the Nymex-listed May light sweet crude (WTI) contract was down $2.21, or 2.3 percent, at $96.05 a barrel.