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OF Bulletin du matin

04/03/2022
Categories: General Information

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Equity markets expected to fall after the attack on a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,741.78 points (-2.06%), the CAC 40 at 6,378.37 points (-1.84%), the DAX 40 at 13,698.40 points (-2.16% ), the FTSE 100 at 7,238.85 points (-2.57%), the SMI at 11,675.70 points (-1.65%), the AEX at 705.42 points (-2.16%), the BEL 20 at 3,874.66 points (-2.11%), IBEX 35 at 8,011.40 points (-3.72%), DJIA at 33,794.66 points (-0.29%), Nasdaq at 13,537.94 points (-1.56%), the S&P 500 at 4,363.49 points (-0.53%) and the Nikkei 225 at 25,985.47 points (-2.23%).

With regard to exchange rates, the variation compared to the close in New York indicates that the EUR/USD appears at 1.1025 (-0.37%), the EUR/JPY at 127.31 (-0.37%) and USD/JPY at 115.48 (+0.01%).

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect industrial production to rise 0.5% from the previous month, after falling 0.2% in December.

European equity markets are expected to open lower again on Friday, as Ukraine's foreign minister claimed on Twitter that Russian troops were bombing Europe's largest nuclear power plant at Enerhodar in the Zaporizhia region. At 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract lost 126 points, or 2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 40 contract was down 263 points, or 1.9%, and the FTSE 100 contract was down 69.5 points, or 1%.

Investors will watch Friday the publication of the report on non-farm payrolls in the United States. The New York Stock Exchange closed lower on Thursday, affected by the recent surge in commodity prices which could fuel inflationary pressures and encourage a more restrictive monetary policy. On the second day of his congressional hearings, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the war in Ukraine could boost inflation in the short term. “We are going to see some upward pressure on inflation, at least temporarily” due to rising commodity prices and specifically energy prices, he said.

In Asia, equity markets are moving lower on Friday. The Nikkei index closed down 2.2% in Tokyo. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange dropped 2.5% and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.9%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell Friday morning to 1.795% against 1.845% Thursday evening. Investors' risk aversion increased after the announcement of Russian strikes against a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which favors assets deemed safe such as government bonds. On Thursday, US bond rates stabilized as investors weighed statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the US Senate Banking Committee.

The euro is down sharply on Friday morning against the dollar and the yen, while the greenback is stable against the Japanese currency, as traders favor safe-haven currencies after the Russian attack on a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Oil prices are expected to be the main factor influencing the euro in the coming weeks, according to TD Securities. The jump in the price of a barrel sent the single currency lower on fears of supply disruptions due to the conflict in Ukraine, adds TD Securities.

Oil prices rose on Friday morning on concerns over supplies caused by the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine. Rising crude prices linked to actual and anticipated disruptions to Russian oil exports should more than offset the effect of any increase in Iranian crude oil supply, CBA said. Some hope that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran will soon be reinstated, which would boost oil production from 1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day in six months, adds CBA. As of 7:20 a.m., the May North Sea Brent crude futures contract gained 76 cents, or 0.7%, to $111.22 a barrel, while the April contract for light sweet crude (WTI) quoted at Nymex was up $1.03, or 1%, to $108.70 a barrel.

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