In its latest note published on August 31, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) now anticipates a surplus of 230,000 tonnes of beans against 165,000 tonnes previously. This upward revision of the cartel is mainly explained by the improved outlook on the supply side.

While the demand for cocoa is gradually picking up in 2020/2021, the world supply is still abundant, resulting in an overflow on the market. In 2020/2021, the surplus on the world cocoa market will be greater than expected. According to Icco, the world harvest of brown gold should indeed reach 5.14 million tonnes by the end of the campaign, a record level up 8% compared to last season (4, 76 million tons). Overall, the organization estimates that the gap between the supply and the processing of cocoa will contribute to increasing stocks at the end of the 2020/2021 campaign. These should amount to 1.96 million tonnes, or 13.3% more than in 2019/2020. As a reminder, the Icco brings together 51 countries, including 22 exporters and 29 importers of cocoa.