After a volatile year, commodity prices will rise sharply in 2021.

Philippe Chalmin, founder of CyclOpe and professor of economics at Dauphine does not believe in a new “supercycle”.

In many respects 2020 will have been a year “unlike any other” and yet on the commodities markets, “the impact of Covid has been relatively limited and, in most cases, fairly quickly forgotten”, notes Philippe Chalmin , professor at Dauphine and co-director of CyclOpe, on the occasion of the presentation of his forecasts for 2021. The rapid recovery of the Chinese economy, which swallows up half of the raw materials in the world, has been the main support for world prices

The ton of copper plunged to 4,600 dollars before rising to around 8,000 dollars and, over the year, its average rose by 3%. Iron ore settled above the $100 mark to end the year at over $160 with an average price up 26%. Agricultural products, spared by the climatic incidents, held up relatively well throughout the crisis and are now trading at levels not seen for several years.

An energy crisis

It is only the prices of energy and in particular those of oil that have fallen much more than expected: - 30% for WTI, - 33% for Brent. The academic underlines the totally unexpected nature of the estrangement between the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as the collapse of the demand for fuel following the containment measures.

In total, and this is the whole paradox of this crisis, the prices of raw materials, the evolution of which is measured by the Cyclope index, fell by 19% in 2020, but excluding energy and precious metals, they stand out perfectly. stable.

2021, which begins with a bang, promises to be more promising. The Cyclope anticipates a rise in its index of 19% and 11% excluding oil and precious metals. But the conditions are numerous: the health situation must gradually improve, climatic events must be limited to what we know today of the La Niña phenomenon, and the global geopolitical balance must not experience any upheaval. "That's a lot of ifs!" recognizes Philippe Chalmin.

These forecasts of increases correspond more to a catch-up - in particular after the significant fall in oil prices in 2020 - than to a real surge in prices. “These variations remain moderate compared to the levels reached at the beginning of 2021 and in reality, we anticipate a readjustment of the markets downwards. »

Goldman Sachs experts believe, on the contrary, that the rebound in commodities will continue because, according to them, the world is entering a new "supercycle", comparable to that of the end of the 2000s. The bank's experts invoke greening savings and more redistributive recovery plans to respond to the social crisis or even the risk of inflation.

This scenario does not convince Philippe Chalmin. "Since the end of the 19th century, raw materials have lived at the rhythm of long cycles lasting between 25 and 30 years", recalls the economist and historian. High tension triggers investments that are followed by two decades of slow decline. "We are just beginning to digest the investments that followed the shock of the years 2007-2012," insists the academic, pointing out in passing that most markets remain in a surplus situation.

In a more structural way, the pandemic has given a boost to the ecological transition. “The green shift is confirmed. Climate awareness will increasingly play a role, including in corporate strategy. The commodity giants have also increased their commitments to carbon neutrality.