Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, commodities were particularly shaken in 2020. But while lows were generally reached during the first confinement, the recovery was there and the year ended on a high note overall favorable with the sharp recovery in China, the deployment of vaccination, the implementation of ambitious recovery programs to support demand, the weakness of the dollar and speculators. However, for agricultural commodities of particular interest to Africa, the picture is more nuanced. If cotton, palm oil, rubber have progressed, coffee and cocoa are rather down.

Agricultural raw materials which are for some more and more under the fire of criticism on working conditions, in particular on forced labor and that of children. The pressure has increased this year with the United States at the forefront. They banned imports of palm oil from the Malaysian companies Sime Darby and FGV Holdings, as well as that of the world's leading producer of latex gloves, Malaysia's Top Glove. Cotton is also in the hot seat with the cotton ban from China's Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), involved in at least a third of cotton production in China, for violating human rights on ethnic minorities, in particular the Uyghurs of the Xinjiang region (Read: Americans ban cotton imports from Chinese XPCC). And then a long-standing fight on child labor in cocoa (Read: A new report confirms the rise of child labor in cocoa in Côte Ivoire and Ghana) but also on the environment and tropical forests for the cocoa but also rubber, palm oil, soy (Read: Food industry puts pressure on Britain to protect rainforests).

Cocoa, a test year

The cocoa market was marked this year by the implementation of the Living Income Differential (LID) of $400 per tonne of cocoa by the two leading world producers, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, to better remunerate producers ( Read: Hershey, guilty of the cocoa war?). A turbulent implementation that disrupted the cocoa market, whose demand was also impacted by Covid-19 in a context of abundant supply. Prices in New York increased by 2.1% in 2020 to close the year at $2,603 per tonne, partly simulated by a drop in certified foreign exchange stocks, while in London they recorded a decline of 4.5% partly under pressure from a weaker dollar

On the production side in the UEMOA zone, that of cocoa is expected to fall by 8.2% in 2020/21 to 2.065 million tonnes but remains 4.3% higher than the average of the last five years, according to the BCEAO. A decline following Côte d'Ivoire's desire to limit supply. However, the Covid 19 pandemic also limited production following the cancellation of certain export contracts, difficulties in supplying inputs and an increase in costs with the implementation of barrier gestures, observes the BCEAO.

Coffee, down slightly

Arabica was weighed down by Brazil's record harvest expected at 63.08 million bags, up 28% on 2019 and registering a slight loss for the year of 1.1% at $1.2825 per pound . As for the Robusta, it remains virtually unchanged at $1,386 per tonne.

Coffee production in the Uemoa zone is also down, down by 7.6% to 106,655 tons due in particular to dormancy due to the production cycle as well as measures taken by Côte d'Ivoire to rationalize exploitation of forest resources and preservation of the country's plant cover.

Rubber rebound

The rubber market gained 11.5% on the Osaka Exchange in Japan to close the year at 226.9 yen ($2.2 yen) per kilo. After a sharp fall, the market recovered under the impetus of China while production fell more than consumption.

In the Uemoa zone, rubber production is still dynamic with an increase of 10% to 526,186 tonnes estimated in 2020/21 under the effect of the expansion of the areas entered into production.

Dramatic recovery in cotton

After a descent into "hell" where prices plunged to 48.35 cents per pound in April with the cessation of demand and the textile industry following the confinement, prices regained 60% to close at 78 .12 cents per pound. Over the year, they increased by 12.5% with the recovery in demand.

Cotton production in the Uemoa zone is expected to contract by 17.1% in 2020/21 to 2.264 million tonnes, a decline largely attributable to Mali's production tumble down 75.1%, cotton growers reducing sown areas (Read: Considerable drop in cotton production in Mali in 2020/21) and to a lesser extent in Benin (-5.6%).

Second year of recovery for palm oil

After rising 44% in 2019, palm oil prices gained another 18% last year to close on December 31 at 3,602 ringgit ($896.02) per tonne. Prices supported by a tightening of supply partly due to the La Nina weather phenomenon, while demand picked up over the year.

Resumption of sugar

Raw sugar recorded an annual gain of 15% despite weaker demand and above all a sharp rise in production in Brazil, as the fall in oil prices made ethanol production unattractive. But, the International Sugar Organization anticipates a global deficit of 3.5 million tonnes for the 2020/21 season. As for white sugar, it shows an increase of 17.2% over the year to $420.90 per tonne.