The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their partners via the OPEC + agreement meet by videoconference on Monday January 4 to decide on the volume of crude to put back on the market in February.

This ministerial meeting is part of a policy "attentive to market conditions" of the alliance, while the recovery in demand for black gold in 2021 remains uncertain.

At the end of the last summit, which was held between November 30 and December 3, OPEC + had undertaken to add 500,000 barrels daily in January, instead of the two million initially planned.

It was also on this occasion that the thirteen members of the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, and their ten allies, led by Russia, had agreed to meet at the beginning of each month in order to decide on the adjustment, or no, of the volume of production, for the following month.

This stringent monitoring illustrates the cartel's desire to maintain a strong influence on the market but also the seriousness of the situation in which crude producers are plunged who were satisfied before the health crisis of two summits a year at the headquarters of the organization. in Vienna, Austria.

This strategy has paid off for analysts at JBC Energy who note "OPEC+'s ability to manage the market, laying the foundations for the recovery of Brent despite the uncertainty that continues to weigh on demand".

The two benchmark contracts, Brent from the European North Sea and American WTI, were trading at around $50 a barrel at the end of the week, a level lower than at the start of 2020 but much higher than the depths reached in April. last.

Two heavyweights

The result of the negotiations of the twenty-three members of OPEC+, three of which are for the moment exempt from quotas, is quite dependent on the goodwill of the two heavyweights of the alliance, Russia and Saudi Arabia , respectively second and third world producer behind the United States.

Last March, it was the misunderstanding between Riyadh and Moscow, leading to a short but intense price war, which caused crude prices to stumble for the first time before the arrival at saturation of storage capacities rushed them further. further, to negative ground for WTI.

The climate is now more peaceful , and the Saudi and Russian energy ministers showed their unity in mid-December during a bipartisan meeting.

"The OPEC+ cooperation charter has brought us together and brought good results (...) It is for this reason that it must continue," Saudi Energy Minister Abdelaziz bin Salman said at the time.

His Russian counterpart Alexandre Novak, in charge of the energy sector, had also insisted on the importance of "working together in order to achieve a balance in the situation on the market".

Fragile demand

However, it is difficult to predict how oil demand will evolve, depressed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

In its latest monthly report, the cartel forecasts a lesser-than-expected rebound and notes " the high uncertainties, mainly with regard to the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and the deployment of vaccines ". He also wonders about "the structural effects of Covid-19 on consumer behavior, particularly in the transport sector".

Other voices are more optimistic : Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn believes that demand will pick up before production this year, especially in the United States.

Nevertheless, the offer offered outside the framework of the OPEC+ agreement remains significant: that of the United States is still 11 million barrels per day and Libya, a member of the cartel but exempted, has more than doubled the Siena in November following the ceasefire signed in the country, according to the cartel.

(AFP)