President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a contested third term.

Cocoa is a central topic in the presidential campaign.

With the approach of the Ivorian presidential election, the traditional opening ceremony of the cocoa harvest in Côte d'Ivoire has taken on the air of a political meeting. During the National Cocoa and Chocolate Days in early October, President Alassane Ouattara announced the increase in the “field edge” price, paid to planters, which will go from 825 to 1,000 CFA francs per kilo. "You can count on me", declared the head of state to the farmers on the spot who welcomed this announcement.

The Minister of Agriculture, he did not hesitate to use this announcement for electoral purposes: "Go everywhere in your villages to announce the good news of President Ouattara's candidacy," said Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani. “The president has done a lot for you, in return you owe him a duty of gratitude,” he added. These statements aroused applause, but also laughter, says AFP.

A premium of 400 dollars per ton

This 21% increase in the “farm gate” price actually corresponds to the “decent income differential” that Côte d'Ivoire and its neighbor Ghana have negotiated with the chocolate multinationals to better remunerate planters. The two countries produce 60% of the world's cocoa and have formed a kind of cocoa OPEC to boost the prices of "brown gold" by imposing a premium of 400 dollars per ton, or 224 CFA francs per kilo. This is progress, but still insufficient to live decently, warns an agricultural trade unionist, quoted by the agency.

It is no coincidence that cocoa is one of the central subjects of the Ivorian presidential campaign: in Côte d'Ivoire, it represents between 10% and 15% of the GDP and up to 40% of the country's exports. The sector supports 5 to 6 million Ivorians, but in difficult conditions: according to the World Bank, 80% of planters earn less than 3 dollars a day.

For investors, the presidential election which will take place on October 31 is the subject of concern. They remember the violence, several thousand dead and missing, after the 2010 elections, when Alassane Ouattara came to power. Cocoa prices rose 20% in the following three months due to export disruptions.

At the end of 2020, the political context is once again tense. Alassane Ouattara is seeking a third term, while the Constitution limited it to two. Violence has already broken out in the country, killing a dozen people and the opposition has already launched calls for "civil disobedience". When the president announced his candidacy this summer, futures contracts in London jumped to 2,694 dollars a ton, before falling back to around 2,500 dollars amid future oversupply.

Surplus market in sight

Cocoa should indeed not be missing. Côte d'Ivoire is about to record one of the best harvests in its history with nearly 2.2 million tons of beans. Even if production in Ghana looks less abundant than expected due to less favorable weather, the market should have a surplus of 200,000 tonnes, unheard of for four years.

The surplus will weigh all the more on prices as chocolate consumption has been severely affected by the pandemic. “Demand from agri-food industries is improving as Christmas approaches in Europe,” note Rabobank analysts. However, Dutch bank experts do not expect a spectacular rebound: with rising unemployment and shrinking GDP in developed countries, chocolate consumption there will be “significantly lower”.