The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday to maintain its economic recovery program. It now expects a slightly less violent recession than expected in the euro zone this year, around 8% against 8.7% estimated in June. The economy would rebound by 5% next year to return to a rate of 3.2% in 2022. The Central Bank continues to expect a marked slowdown in inflation to 0.3% this year before rising to 1 % in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022. Following these declarations, the euro gained yesterday evening 0.64% against the dollar, to € 1.1878 after a peak at €1.1916 during the session.

In the European situation too, this week we noted the hardening of the Commission's tone with regard to the British government, calling on the latter to fully respect the agreement to leave the European Union concluded in January and to withdraw before at the end of the month its bill calling into question certain aspects of the treaty. So the pound sterling widened its losses against the euro and the dollar.

On the United States side, the financial markets ended down yesterday, notably after the Senate refused to vote on a $300 billion recovery plan, the Democrats believing that it was largely insufficient. Markets fear that an agreement on an envelope will not be possible before the election in November.

Following the announcement by the American Energy Information Administration (EIA) of an unexpected increase of two million barrels of crude inventories in the United States last week, the barrel of Brent lost 0.59% yesterday to $ 40.55 and US light crude (WTI) 0.63% to $37.81 dollars.

COCOA - COFFEE - RUBBER - COTTON - PALM OIL - RICE - SUGAR

Cocoa prices have fallen this week, closing last night in London at £1,779 a tonne from £1,796 last Friday. The same was true in New York, with a slide from $2,595 a ton to $2,537.

The information of the week concerns a possible 21% increase in the guaranteed price to the grower in Côte d'Ivoire for the new 2020/21 campaign which will start at the beginning of October, sources from the Cocoa Coffee Council (CCC) told Reuters. The price would thus reach the symbolic threshold of FCFA 1,000 per kilo, or $1.84 (read our information: Côte d'Ivoire would increase its price to the cocoa planter to FCFA 1,000 in 2020/21).

In Côte d'Ivoire, where arrivals at ports totaled 2.043 Mt between October 1 and August 31, the Cocoa Coffee Council (CCC) announced on Monday, a drop of 5.6% compared to the same period. last year. Exporters, for their part, had announced the same figure but until August 30, estimating arrivals at 2.185 Mt over the same period last year.

In Cameroon, for the 2019/20 campaign, arrivals of beans at the port of Douala totaled 257,151 tonnes (t) as of July 15, the National Cocoa and Cocoa Office (ONCC) said on Wednesday. No explanation has been given for this drop of 2.7% compared to the previous season, but observers point out that the violent separatist tensions in the producing region of the south-west are undoubtedly one of the major causes. Of this total, 60,504 t of beans were processed locally, i.e. 23.5% of production. On the export side, the main destinations were the Netherlands, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Germany, with Cargill and Olam being the main buyers, which bought 84% of the total volume exported. In Cameroon, the 2020/21 campaign starts today but the ONCC has not yet given official forecasts of harvest volumes.

On the consumption side, the industry in the United States is worried about the impact of Covid-19 on Halloween celebrated on October 31, a time of year when confectionery consumption is traditionally very high.

On the business side, Barry Callebaut has distinguished itself in recent days with a double announcement: making sustainable chocolate the standard for the Japanese market in collaboration with the entire Japanese sector as well as the launch of its interactive map of its direct cocoa suppliers in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon (read our news: Barry Callebaut pulls out all the stops to make its cocoa globally sustainable).

After its surge, the coffee market calmed down this week, catching its breath and reaping its profits. Robusta coffee has fallen this week from $1,444 a tonne in London last Friday to $1,423 last night. As for Arabica listed in New York, the pound (lb) rose from $1.34 to $1.317. Recall that on September 4, it had hit an 8-month high of $1.34, while it had fallen to $1.12 on August 11, a difference of nearly 20%.

An Arabica market torn between an ever more abundant 2020 Brazilian harvest and certified stock exchanges which are at their lowest levels for 20 years.

As for Brazil, the government statistics agency IBGE yesterday revised its crop estimates upwards, bringing it to 59.6 million 60-kilo bags (Ms) against the 59 Ms it had put forward in August. If 59.6 Ms are reached, this would represent an increase of 19.4% compared to 2019 volumes. Of this total, Arabica coffee would represent 45 Ms, up 1.1% compared to the figure advanced in August , the highest volume in Brazil's history.

As for Robustas, transactions were still limited this week in Vietnam because the 2019/20 campaign is almost over: there is almost no more coffee in warehouses and for the remaining volumes, producers prefer to reach because prices seem more of an uptrend. In addition, at the moment, coffee from Indonesia is in abundance: this week, 5,000 t would have arrived in the warehouses in Lampung against 2,000 t last week. The Vietnamese therefore prefer to wait for a more opportune moment to liquidate the rest of their volumes. Note that if the 2020/21 campaign will officially start at the beginning of October, it will be necessary to wait until the end of November before this new coffee arrives in bulk, traders remind. A new harvest which would be down 10% compared to the previous one, following the biennial vegetative cycle of the coffee tree, despite favorable weather conditions.

That said, the few transactions that took place in Vietnam were at a higher price to the planter compared to last week, at 34,000-34,500 dongs per kilo ($1.47-1.49) against a range of 33,500 to 34,000 dong last week. Traders offered the Grade 2, 5% black and broken grains for export, at a premium of $70 to $80 on the London-listed November contract, up from $90 to $100 last week.

In Indonesia, in the province of Lampung, there is an abundance of coffee as previously indicated, lowering the export premium compared to London to $20-150 per ton whereas it had sometimes reached $200 last week.

In Brazil, producers are taking to social media to share their concerns about the drought for the 2021 harvest. In the region of Minais Gerais, the largest producing state in the country, rainfall totaled only 23 mm in the last two months compared to an average of 68mm in recent years, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon. According to the local coffee research institute, the moisture deficit on some farms is as high as 100 mm compared to average. However, growers are keeping their fingers crossed as the rains usually arrive in late September-early October and for some it is far too early to really worry.

Market almost stable over the week under review but volatile. On the Osaka Exchange, prices fell from 180 yen per kilo last Friday to 180.5 yen ($1.70) yesterday. The Shanghai market is further down with a close yesterday at 12,200 yuan ($1784) per ton against 12,580 yuan last Friday. Rubber prices could remain under pressure, as the rise in Covid-19 cases in some countries casts uncertainty over the recovery of the global economy.

In the physical market, prices in Thailand rebounded approaching a three-year high this month. RSS3 started its ascent in July reaching a high of 64.5 baht ($2.06) per kilo last week. "Rubber prices have risen relative to global demand, driven by Chinese exports after the start of the economic recovery," deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Thanadirek said. She also specified that Thai exports of rubber gloves, the world's second largest producer after Malaysia, should grow by 8 to 15% this year.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) indicates that over the first seven months of the year, world production of natural rubber fell by 8.9% compared to the same period in 2019, while consumption increased. fell 14%. Thus, the ANPRC expects production in 2020 of 13.149 million tonnes (Mt), down 4.9% and consumption of 12.544 Mt down 8.9%. The market would therefore have a surplus of 605,000 tonnes. The association observes that the natural rubber market was dynamic in August with a price increase in August of 24.1% for the RSS3 and 14.3% for the STR20 in Bangkok and an increase of 7.9 % of SMR20 in Kuala Lumpur. The latex market remains at a relatively low level, despite an explosion in the rubber glove manufacturing industry, with growth of 4% in Kuala Lumpur and 3.7% in RSS4 in Kottayam.

In China, imports of natural and synthetic rubber rose 29.9 percent in August from a year earlier to 699,000 tons.

In Vietnam, rubber exports in August amounted to 220,000 tons for a value of $267 million. Over the period January to August, exports totaled 905,000 tonnes, down 5.9% compared to the same period in 2019, for a value of $1.15 billion, down 12.6%, according to the 'Foreign Trade Agency of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The average export price fell 7.2% from the same period last year to $1,272 per ton. Synthetic rubber and natural latex accounted for nearly two-thirds of total exports.

Malaysia saw its exports of rubber gloves jump 50.1% to 15.06 billion Malaysian ringgits ($3.617 billion) in the January to July 2020 period, from RM 10.03 billion in the same period of last year, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry said. Deputy Minister Datuk Lim Ban Hong said the growth was due to increased demand and government efforts to help the rubber glove industry. Global demand for rubber gloves is estimated at 330 billion units for 2020, and Malaysia's production for the export market is estimated at 220 billion units, or 67% of global demand.

Stability in the cotton market with a close yesterday at 64.81 cents per pound against 64.99 cents last Friday. However, prices fluctuated during the week under the influence of the evolution of the dollar, the price of oil and the escalation of tensions between China and the United States after the American customs and protection officials borders have prepared orders to block imports of cotton products from China's western region of Xinjiang due to allegations of forced labor (Read: Will the US ban on cotton from Xinjiang in China affect the cotton market?).

In Turkey, the sharp decline in acreage to 350,000 hectares should lead to cotton production of just 615,000 tons in 2020/21, down 18%, estimates the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Low yields, unattractive cotton prices, inflated costs, uncertainty created by Covid-19 and better yields from alternative crops, in addition to the lack of government subsidies and the fourth year rotation rule are the main reasons for the expected decrease in acreage. Domestic cotton consumption was revised down due to the pandemic to 1.4 Mt in 2019/20 but is expected to rebound to 1.55 Mt in 2020/21. Imports in 2019/20 increased to 919,779 tonnes, in the first eleven months of the marketing year, due to lower local supplies and favorable world prices. The United States continues to be Turkey's main cotton supplier with a market share of 38%, followed by Greece (19%) and Brazil (17%). For 2020/21, imports are expected to fall to 850,000 tonnes.

On the research side, the European Center for Innovative Textiles (CETI) and the children's clothing brand Okaidi of the IdKids group have just developed a first series of recycled cotton t-shirts, made up of 60% fibers from recycled clothing. used cotton and 40% organic virgin cotton fibers (Read: Recycled cotton t-shirts, a first in Europe).

The palm oil market had a volatile week but prices closed yesterday at 2,812 ringgits ($675.64), almost at the same level as last Friday (2,834 ringgits).

Figures released yesterday by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed crude palm oil (CPO) production rose 3.7% in August to 1.862 million tonnes (Mt) from July. CPO oil stocks grew by 7.09% to 930,2895 tons but those of processed palm oil fell by 7.30%. As for exports, still in August, they fell by 11.31% to 1.581 Mt. Over the first ten days of September, exports seem to be picking up with an increase of 10%.

Indonesia plans to revise its levy rules on palm oil exports to allow for higher collection when prices rise to support ambitious biodiesel program, Coordinating Business Minister told Reuters. economic, Airlangga Hartarto. The tax is collected to finance the difference between the cost of producing fuel made from palm oil and the price of crude oil.

Since June 2020, Indonesia has levied a maximum levy of $55 per tonne on palm oil exports, regardless of price. From now on “Every $25 increase will increase the levy by $5,” said Airlangga Hartarto. A historic drop in the price of crude oil this year widened the gap and forced the government to change its levy rules. Airlangga Hartarto estimates that with a price of $40 per barrel, the price differential is manageable.

In Thailand, the cabinet approved the National Palm Oil Policy Committee's proposal to export 300,000 tons of crude palm oil (CPO) by March next year to reduce the huge country's CPO stock and ultimately support domestic prices. To this end, the Ministry of Commerce will allocate 618 million baht ($19.7 million) to support oil palm growers by subsidizing transport and maintenance costs and providing a subsidy of up to two baht per kilogram to CPO exporters. Deputy Government Spokesperson Ratchada Thanadirek added, “The Ministry of Energy and relevant agencies need to discuss with the Budget Office to purchase 100,000 tons of CPO for power generation. The matter will be discussed in more detail later this month.”

Colombia is expected to join the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) soon and enjoy a number of benefits such as the promotion, development and strengthening of cooperation in palm oil cultivation and industry. . Currently, oil palm cultivation is present in 161 municipalities in 21 departments throughout the national territory, generating more than 185,000 direct and indirect jobs and bringing together more than 6,250 producers, of whom approximately 5,036 are small planters. This year, production should increase by 10% (Read our Chronicle Agricultural raw materials as of September 4, 2020) while exports increased by 11.5% over the first seven months of the year to 436,000 tonnes for a value of $281 million.

India's rice export prices have soared amid tight supplies due to pandemic-induced disruptions, while Bangladesh may have to import rice following crop damage.

In India, 5% parboiled rice prices climbed to $387-$394 per tonne from $384-$390 last week following supply difficulties due to disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of infections has reached more than 4.2 million people, making India the second most affected country in the world. Exporters have struggled with limited availability of containers and factory workers at its biggest rice handling port of Kakinada on the east coast. "Coronavirus outbreak has affected rice milling in Andhra Pradesh and loading operations in Kakinada. Limited supplies are available for exports although demand is robust," said an exporter based in Kakinada.

In Vietnam, Viet 5% prices rose slightly to $490-$495 per tonne from $490 per tonne last week supported by weak domestic supplies. "Domestic supplies are very low at the moment, while some exporters continue to fulfill their contracts signed earlier with customers in Malaysia, Timor-Leste and Africa," said a trader in the Mekong Delta province. in Tien Giang.

Traders, however, expect prices to fall in the coming weeks ahead of the fall-winter harvest.

In Thailand, Thai 5% prices weakened to $487-$510 per tonne from $500-$513 last week amid moderate demand.

In Bangladesh, domestic prices increased by 20% in one month with the prospect of a production shortfall. Excessive rains in March-April, Cyclone Amphan in May and three bouts of flooding in June-July damaged most crops, 70% of which were paddy, according to Agriculture Ministry officials. Bangladesh must start importing rice without delay, people familiar with the matter said.

In Brazil, Camex, the section of the Brazilian Ministry of Economy that oversees foreign trade, has waived import taxes on rice until December 31 amid a significant rise in domestic rice prices. The tariff exemption will only apply to the first 400,000 tonnes to be imported.

Egypt, the world's largest buyer of wheat, announced on Wednesday the creation of a commodity exchange with a capital of 91 million Egyptian pounds ($5.78 million). The exchange will trade wheat, oils, sugar and rice in a first stage in the first half of 2021, the Ministry of Supply said in a statement.

Côte d'Ivoire has signed a memorandum of understanding on rice with Moroccan OCP (Read: Moroccan OCP signs an agreement with Côte d'Ivoire to boost its rice sector).

The price of brown sugar ended last night in the New York market almost where it was last Friday, at 11.91 cents against 11.93 cents per pound (lb). The same goes for white, which went from $354.50 a ton in London to $354.30 yesterday. Note that since the beginning of the year, sugar prices have fallen by 10%.

The heaviness of the market is explained by the abundance in Brazil and the prospect of still subsidized exports from India for the 2020/21 campaign.

In Brazil first, refineries in the center-south of the country produced 2.93 Mt from August 15 to 31, i.e. 16% more than at the end of August 2019. As for India, it should maintain for the third consecutive campaign its subsidies for the export of its sugar. Indeed, the Indian authorities want to encourage the sector to export in order to reduce stocks so that the price of sugar on the domestic market does not fall below a threshold which would be unsustainable for the local sugar industry. "Sugar export incentives for 6 Mt could be announced before the end of the month," a government official said, Reuters reports.

Recall that in 2019/20, the Indian government had established the export subsidy at 10,448 rupees per ton ($ 142.20) which would have allowed the industry to export 5.5 Mt, the weakness of the rupee helping. In total, at the end of August 2019, the government envelope had been set at $876.74 million for the industry to export 6 Mt over 2019/20. For 2020/21, the government said it will set the budget envelope for this subsidy later, after consultation with the various ministries involved. This campaign, India must export a minimum of 5 Mt to maintain price levels on the local market. Remember that India will start its new 2020/21 campaign with 11.5 Mt of sugar in its warehouses and should produce 31 Mt while its national consumption is 26 Mt. We are drowning in sugar...

Egypt announced yesterday to extend its ban on imports of brown and white sugar for three months; the original ban had been made in June. The objective is to reduce the impact of fluctuating international prices on the local industry, especially since the national market is well covered with 1.4 Mt in warehouses, which corresponds to more than 6 months of consumption.

In Russia, the Muscovite agricultural consultant Ikar has revised its national sugar production forecast for 2020/21 downwards: it would be between 5 and 5.4 Mt against the 5.6 to 6 Mt previously announced. This is the result of the 18% drop in areas devoted to sugar beet this year following low prices on the local market, which provide little incentive for producers. But this does not worry Ikar who recalls that national stocks are well supplied following 5 overproduction campaigns. From one source to another, these volumes in warehouses vary considerably: Ikar estimates them at 1.6 Mt on August 1, while the Union of Russian Sugar Producers goes up to 3.1 Mt. farmers have already harvested 3.8 Mt of sugar beet from 11% of the areas devoted to this crop. Last campaign, Russia exported 1.4 Mt of sugar, according to Ikar; its very first estimates for 2020/21 show a sharp fall, to 182 000 t.