Is it already back to normal? The price of a barrel of Brent has been fluctuating between 38 and 43 dollars since the beginning of the month. This is still much less than at the start of the year, when it flirted with 70 dollars, but we are not very far from the prices at the beginning of March, on the eve of the outbreak of the global health crisis. Since the low point reached at the end of April, the price of oil has more than doubled. It traded above $41 midday on Friday, up 1.3%.

“Like equity markets, oil prices react mainly to news that can have an impact on demand at the moment, decrypts Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at BNP Paribas. The hope of a vaccine raises them, the announcement of new cases in the southern United States lowers them. »

The signs of a vigorous recovery in fuel consumption are multiplying. In Europe, containment measures are loosened everywhere and road traffic is soaring again. He even returned to normal in Germany. In Paris, nitrogen dioxide pollution emitted by cars jumped 118% from the lowest recorded in April, shows a study by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air published on Wednesday. The increase in pollution exceeds 70% in Milan and 30% in London. In China, crude imports exceeded their pre-crisis level. Part of these purchases is intended for strategic stocks - Beijing is taking advantage of the crisis to make reserves at low prices. But Chinese refineries are running at a high level (about 80% of their capacity), proof that fuel sales are on the right track. Globally, the International Energy Agency predicts a sharp rebound in demand next year, by nearly 6 million barrels per day.

OPEC quotas respected

The offer, it remains restrained, which contributes to support the prices. OPEC and Russia have agreed to reduce their volumes in unprecedented proportions: nearly 10 million barrels (10% of world supply) have been withdrawn from the market every day since May 1. "And this time, the quotas are generally well respected by major producers like Russia," said Harry Tchilinguirian. Iraq and Nigeria produced more than they should have, but that's no surprise to the market. Outside the alliance, shale oil production is mechanically falling due to the decline in prices. In the United States, it has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years. UBS forecasts a drop of 1.5 million barrels at the end of the year. And the fall in drilling for new wells, to the lowest since 2009, prohibits a strong rise next year. "The fundamentals of the global market have changed significantly," say analysts at Bank of America . These experts now expect an average Brent price of $50 next year and $55 in 2022.

Under these conditions, the surpluses accumulated in the four corners of the planet are beginning to flow back. But they remain at such exceptional levels that they risk having a lasting impact on prices. They can still rise again from time to time, like last week in the United States. More than 1 billion barrels sleep in tanks around the world, say analysts from the Japanese bank MUFG. Another factor will prevent prices from rising much higher. With a barrel at more than 40 dollars, “some shale operations are profitable again and large producers in Texas are reopening the taps, warn MUFG experts. American shale is touched but not sunk”. A sword of Damocles for the OPEC countries and Russia.