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OF Bulletin du matin

12/08/2021
Categories: General Information

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European equity markets are expected to open in a mixed fashion. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,206.33 points with an increase of 0.44%, the CAC 40 at 6,857.99 points (+0.55%), the DAX 30 at 15,826.09 points (+0.35 %), the FTSE 100 at 7,220.14 points (+0.83%), the SMI at 12,387.90 points (+0.21%), the AEX at 775.84 points (+0.09%), the BEL 20 at 4,339.95 points (+0.25%), the IBEX 35 at 8,975.80 points (+0.86%), the DJIA at 35,484.97 points (+0.62%), the Nasdaq at 14,765.14 points (-0.16%), the S&P 500 at 4,447.70 points (+0.25%) and the Nikkei 225 at 28,042.17 points with a decline of 0.10%.

On the exchange side, the variation from the close in New York indicates that the EUR/USD opens at 1.1743 with an increase of 0.03%, the EUR/JPY at 129.63 ( -0.01%) and USD/JPY at 110.39 down 0.05%.

No macroeconomic indicator should be published Thursday in France.

European equity markets should try to continue their rise Thursday at the opening, after Wall Street crossed the day before new highs, investors having appreciated the latest inflation figures across the Atlantic. At 7:45 am, the futures contract on the CAC 40 yielded 5.5 points, or 0.1%, according to data from the broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 30 rose by 9.5 points, or 0.1%, and that on the FTSE 100 rose by 9.7 points, or 0.1% as well. However, the progression of European stock markets could be slowed down by the declarations of two central bankers of the Federal Reserve (Fed), who affirmed that it was time for the institution to start reducing its monetary support. On Thursday, investors will watch the release of UK gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter and industrial production in the eurozone for June. The President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Kansas City spoke on Wednesday in favor of a withdrawal of the purchases of bonds of the American central bank to take into account the evolution of the economy.

The Fed has been carrying out bond buybacks of $120 billion per month for more than a year to smooth the credit markets and encourage investment in the face of the repercussions of the health crisis. The leader has come out in favor of a gradual elimination of these operations between next October and June. The New York Stock Exchange closed in mixed fashion on Wednesday, but the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes broke new records as news of slowing inflation in the United States outweighed fears about of the health situation. Consumer prices rose 0.5% in July from June, compared with a 0.9% rise the previous month, the US Department of Labor said on Wednesday. Inflation, however, remained at a high level over one year, with prices excluding food and energy having increased by 4.3% compared to June 2020. The overall index rose by 5.4% over one year. In Asia, equity markets fell slightly on Thursday. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by 0.1%, the Hang Seng index yielded 0.1% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.1%.

Yields on US Treasury bonds rose Thursday morning, after losing momentum the previous day. At 7:30 a.m., the yield on the ten-year US Treasury benchmark stood at 1.348%, after closing lower on Wednesday at 1.337%, ending six sessions of increases to settle 0.410 percentage points in below its one-year high reached in March. TD expects the yield on the 10-year bond to hit 1.75% by the end of the year, based on the assumption of a continuation of the strong economic recovery in the fourth quarter, a budget spending plan of 3,000 to 4,000 billion dollars and the announcement by the Fed of a gradual reduction in its asset purchases in December.

The euro changed little on Thursday morning against the dollar and the yen, while the greenback gained a little ground against the Japanese currency. The US Dollar Index remained below 93. For TD Securities, the dollar fell on the weaker than expected rise in the price index excluding food and energy in July compared to the previous month. The financial intermediary, however, does not believe that the depreciation of the dollar is sustainable.

Oil prices changed little on Thursday during the Asian session, after gaining more than 1% on Wall Street on Wednesday. The barrel initially fell in response to statements by the US government, which wants to see OPEC + increase its production to support the recovery of the economy. Prices then rebounded, helped in particular by the announcement of a reduction in crude inventories in the United States. The bank expects oil demand to fall to 97.8 million barrels per day in August and September from 98.4 million barrels per day in July. As of 7:20 a.m., the October North Sea Brent contract was up 5 cents, at $71.49 a barrel. The September contract on Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) rose 4 cents to $69.29 a barrel.

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