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OF Bulletin du matin

21/06/2021
Categories: General Information

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European stocks are expected to fall. At the start of the week, the Eurostoxx 50 showed 4,083.37 points down by 1.80%, the CAC 40 opened at 6,569.16 points with a drop of 1.46%, the DAX 30 at 15,448.04 points (-1.78%), the FTSE 100 at 7,017.47 points (-1.90%), the SMI at 11,941.25 points (-0.58%), the AEX at 719.63 points (-2.08%), the BEL 20 at 4,137.78 points (-1.58%), the IBEX 35 at 9,030.60 points (-1.80%), the DJIA at 33.290.08 points (-1.58%), the Nasdaq at 14,030.38 points (-0.92%), the S&P 500 at 4,166.45 points (-1.31%), the Nikkei 225 at 27,933.27

points (-3.56%).

The exchange rate at 06:50 opens backwards. EUR/USD posted 1.1861 (-0.03%), EUR/JPY 130.22 (-0.42%) and USD/JPY 109.80 (-0.40%)

.

Investors will follow the news coming from the Paris Air Forum on Monday, where numerous aviation executives will speak. Vivendi announced Sunday evening that it had signed an agreement to sell 10% of the capital of its record company Universal Music Group (UMG) to Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, the listed investment vehicle, or Spac, of billionaire William Ackman. The price of this transaction is based on an enterprise value of 35 billion euros for 100% of UMG's capital. The operation should take place no later than September 15, the media and entertainment group said in a statement.

European equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday, in the wake of Wall Street's pullback on Friday, while investors are embracing the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising rates sooner than expected. At 7:40am, the CAC 40 futures contract fell 25 points, or 0.4%, according to data from the broker IG Markets. The DAX 30 contract lost 129 points, or 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 contract lost 52.5 points, or 0.8%. Wall Street closed sharply lower on Friday after a week of correction in industrial stocks, as investors adjust their portfolios after the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s less accommodative tone. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 1.6%, or 533 points, to 33,290.08 points. The expanded S&P 500 index lost 1.3% to 4,166.45 points, bringing to an end three consecutive weeks of growth. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 14,030.38 points. Over the week as a whole, the Dow Jones Index lost 3.5%, its largest weekly decline since last October. The S&P 500 fell by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq limited

its weekly decline to 0.3%.

After the Fed's announcements on Wednesday, investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the central bank will act to curb the rise in inflation. Fed members are now planning two interest rate hikes in 2023, compared to none before 2024 at the previous meeting. This more restrictive tone, which has contributed in particular to a strong rise in the dollar, encourages investors to reassess their portfolios by moving away from cyclical stocks, such as banks and industrial groups, in favour of growth stocks such as technology. Reinforcing investor concerns, James Bullard, the president of the Saint Louis Fed, said on Friday that he expected the first rate hike in 2022, earlier than the median projection released by the American central bank on Wednesday

.

In this context, investors will follow a new speech on Monday by James Bullard, who will be alongside Philadelphia and Dallas Fed presidents Patrick Harker and Robert Kaplan, at a virtual Fed seminar. At 21:00, New York Fed President John Williams will also deliver a speech. In the eurozone, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will be interviewed, starting at 16:15 p.m., by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. In the wake of Wall Street, Asian stock markets fell on Monday morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index fell 3.6% at the end of the session. The Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell 1.6% and the Shanghai Composite lost

0.2%.

Long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields continued to fall on Monday, while yields on two-year securities continued to rise after posting their biggest weekly rise in nearly two years on Friday. As a result, the yield curve is flattening. Friday's bond market movements were triggered by comments by Saint Louis Federal Reserve Chairman James Bullard, but they had partly begun after the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which adopted a relatively restrictive tone

.

The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Monday morning as risk aversion dominates the markets. Financial markets remained focused on the Fed's interest rate projections last week and the situation is expected to be the same this week. The comments of John Williams on Monday and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will address the House of Representatives on Tuesday, are particularly expected. Signs that the Fed's monetary policy committee is becoming less and less certain about the inflation outlook are important for monetary policy and can support the dollar, the bank said, adding that any rise above expectations for the PCE index, which measures inflation related to American household consumption, expected on Friday, would also be favourable to the dollar

.

Oil contracts continued to rise on Monday, with the election of the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raïssi as president of Iran leading investors to think that it may take longer than expected for Iranian oil to return to the markets. At 7:30am, the August contract for North Sea Brent rose 19 cents, at $73.70 per barrel, and the July contract for sweet light crude (WTI) listed on Nymex took 26 cents, at $71.90

per barrel.
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