In its very first exhaustive analysis on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Togolese economy in general and on the private sector in particular, published on September 9 following an investigation carried out in June, the World Bank underlines that GDP growth has accelerated in the past two years, from 4.9% in 2018 to 5.3% in 2019 but would fall to 1% in 2020 “according to the optimistic scenario”. This would be the consequence of "the decline in growth among Togo's main trading partners (Europe, China, WAEMU), air traffic restrictions, border closures and containment measures".

The current account deficit is expected to stabilize at around 4.5% of GDP over the forecast period, reflecting higher imports of capital goods and relatively weaker exports due to slowing global growth. The budget deficit is projected to rise to 5.7% of GDP in 2020.

Before the arrival of the pandemic, this robust growth - although below the performance of its neighbors - was linked in particular to the expansion of the agricultural sector and more specifically to the "rebound in food production", according to the World Bank. . "The dynamism of agricultural production also reflects an increase in cultivated land and better access to finance."

The arrival of Covid-19 "will have significant negative consequences for Togo, a small open economy and regional transport hub", specifies the Bank. The decline in exports is expected to be larger, reflecting weak demand from trading partners and weak global growth; poverty is expected to increase with the decline in household incomes and the expected increase in the prices of basic and imported food products.

Agriculture hit hard

Agriculture (30% of GDP) and agro-industry are hit hard: "41% of companies in the agricultural and agro-industrial sector have experienced a drop in the level of sales of around 75 to 100% “, we read in the report.

And their access to finance is getting much more difficult with around 23% of companies seeing “a drop in available finance.” “This proportion was higher for medium-sized companies (40%) and in certain sectors, such as manufacturing (36%), agriculture and agribusiness (55%).”