With the economic crisis linked to the coronavirus, Nigerian oil, which is sold at knockdown prices on international markets, brings in almost no more money for the leading African producer, more weakened than ever by its strong dependence on black gold.

World prices may have risen above the 30 dollar mark in recent days - against less than 20 two weeks ago - but the future remains bleak for Nigeria, which derives more than half of its income and 90% of its oil export earnings.

"Nigeria is facing the twin challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in the price of crude oil," Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed said last week.

And to recognize: "It's a double whammy (...) The world crude markets are really slowing down and we are not able to sell as much crude as before".

On this point, the English-speaking West African giant seems even worse off than other producing countries, yet they too have been impacted by the slowdown in global demand, particularly from China, and the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Today, Nigerian oil is indeed selling for almost $10 less than the barrel of Brent on which it is generally aligned, according to experts and sources in the oil sector interviewed by AFP. And for lack of storage space on land, cargo ships filled with still unsold oil are waiting at sea to be able to unload crude for European refineries...

- "Discount race" -

According to the Bloomberg agency, the Nigerian barrel even fell to 12 or 13 dollars at the worst of the crisis, at the end of April: a far cry from the forecasts of 57 dollars on which Nigeria's 2020 budget had been established, before the pandemic.

While global supply has largely exceeded demand for several weeks, "we are witnessing a discount race, where the Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, are much better placed to sell their oil", says Benjamin Augé, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

Because in Nigeria, rampant corruption, looting of crude oil, and security constraints borne by oil companies in the Niger Delta (south), where many pirates and criminal groups operate, are driving up production costs - between 15 and 30 dollars per barrel.

"The Nigerian barrel now costs almost as much as it brings in," concludes Benjamin Augé. For him, "Nigeria has rarely done as badly as today".

Result: oil revenues fell by 80%, the government announced last week, which recognized the prospect of an "imminent recession" by the end of the year.

The initial budget of 35 billion dollars has just been revised downwards for the second time - on the basis of a barrel at 20 dollars - "in order to conform to current realities", summarized the Minister of Finance.

- Banks threatened -

Even before the current crisis, Africa's most populous country with nearly 200 million people - around 40% of whom live on less than a dollar a day - was already struggling to recover from a severe economic recession it went through in 2016-2017 and stagnated at around 2% annual growth.

Despite President Muhammadu Buhari's promises when he was elected in 2015, "economic diversification remains largely a chimera, few concrete policies to develop other sectors have led to results", emphasizes Benjamin Augé.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a 3.4% GDP contraction in 2020, and has just approved $3.4 billion in emergency financing to help Nigeria. A sum deemed still insufficient for the country which hopes to borrow a total of nearly 7 billion dollars from international institutions.

"Nigeria is losing colossal sums at the moment, it's a real disaster," confirmed to AFP the president of the African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk, based in Johannesburg.

“Even if prices go up with the resumption of world trade, the situation will remain very difficult in the medium term, with many layoffs to be expected and a halt to all the major oil major projects supposed to see the light of day this year, especially offshore," he said.

Another concern: "the disastrous consequences of the situation" for Nigerian oil industry operators who pose a significant risk to the banking sector, the largest on the continent after South Africa, according to editorialist Demola Ojo, of the daily This Day in a recent column.

According to him, while the hydrocarbons sector represents about 30% of gross loans granted by local banks, these operators, over-indebted and on the verge of bankruptcy, will have difficulty repaying their installments, and risk dragging Nigerian banks into their fall.