One of the first trips for the new IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, was to
Africa, in Dakar, for a conference on the theme “Sustainable development and sustainable debt: finding the
fair balance”, organized by the Republic of Senegal, the IMF, the UN and the Circle of Economists. The,
the Heads of State of UEMOA pleaded for a "Dakar consensus", which would combine the strengthening of
macroeconomic and institutional governance on the part of the States and a differentiated treatment of risks
and debt ratios by creditors, in order to finance future investments together.
Africa views its future positively, in contrast to the rest of the world. Indeed, while the
international cooperation seems to be called into question, Africa is embarking on the process of a
continental free trade. As global growth slows from 4% in 2017 to
around 3.3% in 2019, sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) maintains its pace at 4.2% in 2019
and several African countries are on the cusp of an oil and mining boom.
But which Africa are we talking about, or rather how many Africas? What is striking, in fact, is the diversity
of African countries. In terms of GDP growth, it is countries without oil resources that draw
their game: the 7% growth of Senegal contrasts with the -0.7% of Angola. Within the
countries themselves, there is great inequality between rural areas and cities. Structural trajectories are also
varied: they do not go linearly from agriculture to industry, but can be oriented towards
services, creating jobs, or towards strengthening the agricultural sector itself, by developing
more productive or high value-added sectors. This is, as we often forget, the path chosen by the countries
Asian countries: their growth was based primarily on an increase in agricultural productivity.
We often speak of Africa as a continent of opportunities. But it's now that everything is played.
First, in Africa as elsewhere, the climate emergency calls for an end to the increase in
emissions by 2020, before reducing them enough to fall below the trajectory
current 3 degree warming by 2100 and avoid catastrophe.
Africa, especially, finally finds itself rich in men. We know that the African population will double to 2
billion inhabitants by 2050 and that this doubling requires average growth of 6.9% per year in
GDP in order to create enough jobs. But this future opportunity obscures the reality today: Africa
now has 1.3 billion inhabitants, i.e. 750 million people of working age... and who
working. These are men and women who develop their activity in agriculture and the sector
informal (services and small industry) despite the absence of credit and insurance. These are real
entrepreneurs because they take risks and innovate: they know how to adapt technology "with the means
on board" to a request they know well. As Nobel Prize winner Michael Kremer said in a
famous article, a large population, it is the guarantee of a swarming of ideas.