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OF Bulletin du matin

30/03/2022
Categories: General Information

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Equity markets are expected to open lower on concerns about the war in Ukraine and US rates. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,002.18 points (+2.96%), the CAC 40 at 6,792.16 points (+3.08%), the DAX 40 at 14,820.33 points (+2.79%) ), the FTSE 100 at 7,537.25 points (+0.86%), the SMI at 12,325.58 points (+1.40%), the AEX at 735.15 points (+2.05%), the Nasdaq at 14,619.64 points (+1.84%), the S&P 500 at 4,631.60 points (+1.23%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,763.28 points (-1.73%).
Regarding exchange rates, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opens at 1.1112 (+0.22%), EUR/JPY at 135.30 (-0.67%) and USD/JPY 121.77 (-0.92%).
Orange's board of directors is meeting on Wednesday to appoint the group's future president. Jacques Aschenbroich, the current president of the automotive supplier Valeo, should be co-opted by the board, reported the newspaper Le Monde last week. European stocks are expected to open slightly lower on Wednesday as investors assess the progress of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and worry about the inversion of the yield curve in the United States. At 7:35 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract lost 13 points, or 0.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 40 gave up 42 points, or 0.3%, and that on the FTSE 100 gained 0.7 point, or 0.02%.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, welcoming progress in negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine, which was accompanied by a further decline in oil prices. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) gained 1% to 35,294.19 points. The broader S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to 4,631.60 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8% to 14,619.64 points. This advance allowed the S&P 500 to exit the correction phase it entered a little over a month ago, after losing more than 10% from its previous peak. As the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury briefly topped that of the 10-year on Tuesday, prompting a feared inversion of the yield curve, investors will be watching on Wednesday for central bankers' comments and economic indicators expected today. , including inflation in Germany, the ADP report on employment in the private sector in the United States and the third estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the fourth quarter.
On the side of the central bankers, the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Kansas City, Esther George, will deliver a speech at 7:00 p.m. (Paris time). In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will speak at 10 a.m. at an event hosted by the central bank of Cyprus. Fabio Panetta, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, will be heard from 4:30 p.m. by the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the subject of the digital euro. In Asia, the main markets presented a mixed picture on Wednesday. In the wake of Wall Street, the Hang Seng index of the Hang Kong Stock Exchange gained 1.3% at the end of the session and the Shanghai Composite advanced 1.4%. On the other hand, the Nikkei index lost 1.6% in Tokyo, penalized by the rebound of the yen.
Yields on long-term Treasuries continued to slide Wednesday morning. At 7:35 a.m., the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond, the market benchmark fell to 2.359%, against 2.401% on Tuesday evening. On Tuesday, the yield on the two-year note intermittently exceeded that of the 10-year Treasury, causing the yield curve to invert, as investors priced in the likelihood of a sharp hike in Fed and U.S. rates. economic outlook more pessimistic than before.
The dollar continued to fall on Wednesday against other major currencies, including the euro, due to growing fears of recession in the United States. The recent fall in household confidence "would be consistent with a probability of recession of around 50% for the coming year", indicates Deutsche Bank. Analysts point out that the brief inversion in the two- and ten-year Treasury yield curve, seen on Tuesday, signals that a period of economic slowdown is ahead.
Oil contracts recover some of the ground lost the day before on Wednesday morning, operators hoping that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia will opt for the status quo, namely a production increase of 400,000 barrels per day, at their meeting on Thursday.
As of 7:20 a.m., the May contract for Brent North Sea crude was up 73 cents, or 0.7%, at $110.96 a barrel, while the same-maturity contract for light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex rose. 78 cents, or 0.7%, to $104.99 a barrel.

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