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OF Bulletin du matin

28/02/2022
Categories: General Information

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Tensions between Russia and the West are expected to weaken European equity markets. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,970.69 points (+3.69%), the CAC 40 at 6,752.43 points (+3.55%), the DAX 40 at 14,567.23 points (+3.67%) ), the FTSE 100 at 7,489.46 points (+3.91%), the SMI at 11,987.31 points (+3.01%), the AEX at 727.85 points (+2.72%), the BEL 20 at 4,061.17 points (+4.18%), IBEX 35 at 8,486.60 points (+3.51%), DJIA at 34,058.75 points (+2.51%), Nasdaq at 13,694.62 points (+1.64%), the S&P 500 at 4,384.65 points (+2.24%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,526.82 points (+0.19%).

With regard to exchange rates, the variation compared to the closing in New York indicates that the EUR/USD is displayed at 1.1153 (-1.06%), the EUR/JPY at 128.85 ( -1.05%), USD/JPY at 115.54 (+0.02%).

European and US index futures fell on Monday morning as Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the nuclear threat after the announcement of new Western sanctions against Russia in response to the invasion of the 'Ukraine. Around 7:20 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was down 189.8 points, or 2.8%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 40 lost 448.5 points, or 3.1%, and that on the FTSE 100 lost 106.8 points, or 1.4%. Russian markets are expected to experience strong jolts at the open, after the United States and its allies said on Saturday it wanted to exclude major Russian banks from the Swift interbank network, which would isolate them from the international banking system.

Tensions between Russia and the West rose further on Sunday after Vladimir Putin raised the threat of nuclear weapons in response to what he called "belligerent statements" from NATO. At the same time, Ukrainian forces continued to put up firm resistance to the Russian invasion, and Ukraine agreed to talks with Russia in Belarus, although hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict seem dim.

In Asia, the main markets evolved in a contrasting way on Monday. The Nikkei index closed up 0.2% in Tokyo. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0.8%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. The New York Stock Exchange closed sharply higher on Friday, erasing its losses from the start of the week after a wave of cheap buying. The market also benefited from the announcement of a possible resumption of diplomatic contacts between Russia and Ukraine, even if the Russian offensive continued on the ground.

Escaping the correction that threatened Thursday to sign its best session in over a year, the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) ended up 2.5% to 34,058.75 points. The broader S&P 500 index gained 2.2% to 4,384.65 points. After opening in the red, the Nasdaq Composite finally took 1.6% to 13,694.62 points. For the week as a whole, the Dow Jones remained stable, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. This increase came after an easing in energy prices. A barrel of WTI crude ended Friday down 1.3%, at $91.59, on the Nymex, but gained 1.5% for the week as a whole.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 1.904% on Monday morning from 1.969% on Friday evening, as investors turned to assets deemed safe, faced with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. The markets are also pricing in a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its key rate, which is currently between 0% and 0.25%, at its next meeting in March.

The euro fell sharply Monday morning against the dollar and the yen, while the greenback was stable against the Japanese currency, traders favoring safe-haven currencies. Ruble futures are down 19%, meaning the Russian currency could trade at around 109 rubles to the dollar. The currency would hit a historic low if it fell to 90 rubles to the dollar.

There are, however, signs of a reluctance on the part of market participants to set a price for the rouble. A forex market strategist says there is no real market. Given the sanctions that Westerners want to apply to the Russian central bank and the country's financial institutions, the ruble is likely to undergo a large sell-off when liquidity returns to the market.

Oil prices jumped Monday morning, the latest sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia exacerbating concerns about the supply of black gold. In this context, Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant rise in oil contracts in the very short term. The American investment bank raised its forecast for the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea from 95 to 115 dollars. As of 7:35 a.m., the May futures contract for North Sea Brent crude was up 5.6%, at $99.38 a barrel, while the April contract for Nymex-listed WTI light sweet crude was up 5, 7%, to $96.73 a barrel.

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