- Les Echos 2019 Visit the website: lesechos.fr for more information. The 500 million inhabitants of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have benefited this year from growth in their incomes above the world average. For the others, numbering 700 million, the outlook is less positive. Good but could do better. The economic growth of the 45 countries of sub-Saharan Africa should remain at 3.2% on average in 2019, as in 2018, and increase to 3.6% in 2020, according to the annual regional report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented Wednesday in Paris. A result, however, 0.3% lower than what was expected six months ago for two-thirds of the countries in the area. "The result is rather positive in a context complicated by jihadist threats, economic uncertainties in South Africa, the consequences of Sino-American tensions, or the fall in commodity prices," said Papa N'Diaye, head of division. of the African Department at the IMF. A context that has not prevented African countries with few raw materials from benefiting, thanks to their light industry, from growth of 6% on average this year. These twenty-four countries, including Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Ethiopia and Ghana, have 500 million inhabitants whose per capita income will have increased more rapidly than the world average. Inflationary pressures Conversely, twenty-one commodity-exporting countries, comprising 700 million people, notably Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, should record growth of only 2.5% on average. Per capita income will have increased less than the world average. In the region as a whole, "this growth remains insufficient", given the demographic dynamics, underlines Rima Le Coguic, Africa Director at the French Development Agency, who presented a summary report on the African economy. . Projections establish that the area's labor market will have to absorb 20 million new entrants each year, whereas only 10 million jobs have been created there per year since the beginning of the century. Papa N'Diaye stresses that, to boost their growth, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have little room for budgetary manoeuvre, due to the weight of their debt, or monetary, due to inflationary pressures. The only way out is therefore to improve the business climate by facilitating access to credit for private companies, which are called upon to take over from major public projects, or by lowering regulatory and customs obstacles. The IMF recommends rationalizing inefficient public subsidies and opening up markets to competition (the gross margins of companies in two thirds of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa are 11% higher than those observed in other emerging countries). The launch last April of a continental free trade area will be positive in the medium term, believes the IMF economist, but it will take years to produce its effects. The jihadist risk The IMF report highlights the climatic, health and above all security hazards weighing on the region. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso must devote 4% of their GDP, or one-fifth of their tax revenue, to their army. The latter, however, seems unable to cope, in Mali, for lack of means and training; 49 soldiers were killed there on Friday in a military camp in the town of Indelimane following a surprise attack by the jihadist group EIGS. A French soldier from Operation Barkhane, deployed in the Sahel since 2014, 4,500 strong, was killed the next day by the explosion of a homemade bomb. EIGS has been raging since 2015 in the so-called three-border area, between Mali, Burkina and Niger, one of the most dangerous in the world.