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OF Bulletin du matin

28/01/2022
Categories: General Information

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European markets expected in dispersed order before German GDP and the PCE index in the United States. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,184.97 points (+0.49%); the CAC 40 at 7,023.80 points (+0.60%), the DAX 40 at 15,524.27 points (+0.42%), the FTSE 100 at 7,554.31 points (+1.13%), the SMI at 12,176.90 points (+0.65%), the AEX at 753.79 points (+0.18%), the BEL 20 at 4,105.45 points (+0.62%), the IBEX at 35 at 8,706.00 points (+1.00%), the DJIA at 34,160.78 points (-0.02%), the Nasdaq at 13,352.78 points (-1.40%), the S&P 500 at 4,326.51 points (-0.54%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,717.34 points (+2.09%).

On the exchange rate side, the variation compared to the close in New York indicates that the EUR/USD opens at 1.1154 (+0.07%), the EUR/JPY at 128.77 (+ 0.14%) and USD/JPY at 115.46 (+0.07%).

France's gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded 7% in 2021, after contracting 8% in 2020, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) announced on Friday in a first estimate. . Household consumption expenditure in France also increased by 0.2% over one month in December after rising 0.9% in November, INSEE said.

European equity markets are expected to start the session in mixed order on Friday, after another session of declines on Wall Street, as investors await the first estimate of Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter and news US inflation data. Around 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract gained 30 points, or 0.4%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 40 lost 22 points, or 0.1%, and that on the FTSE 100 rose by 17 points, or 0.2%.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal anticipate a 0.5% contraction in German GDP in the fourth quarter, a period marked by the implementation of major health restrictions, compared to the previous three months. Over one year, Germany should post a growth of 1.3%, they estimate. The markets are also awaiting the publication of the PCE index in the United States. This price index linked to household consumption is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of inflation. According to the consensus established by the Wall Street Journal, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, should have increased by 4.8% over one year in December, after 4.7% in November. Over one month, the increase is expected at 0.5%.

In a context of high volatility in the markets, linked to expectations of a rate hike by the Fed in March, Wall Street ended down on Thursday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 0.02% to 34,160.78 points, erasing the lead of more than 600 points acquired after the announcement of a more pronounced acceleration than expected in US growth in the fourth quarter. . The broader S&P 500 index lost 0.5% to 4,326.51 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% to 13,352.78 points, after gaining up to 2% at the start of the session.

In Asia, equity markets presented a mixed picture on Friday. The Nikkei index closed up 2.1% in Tokyo, after falling 3.1% the day before. At the end of the session, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng lost 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.2%.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond rose Friday morning, after posting its biggest decline in nearly a week on Thursday. The spread between the yields of the different maturities has thus narrowed to its lowest level in years, a possible sign of persistent concerns about the economic outlook.

The euro is up slightly against the dollar on Friday morning, but remains close to its lowest levels since mid-2020. Against the yen, the single currency is also recovering, supported by an improvement in risk appetite in the markets, with growing confidence in the Fed's determination to solve the inflation problem, ANZ said.

Oil prices rebounded on Friday morning after posting their first drop in three sessions on Thursday. Around 7:30 a.m., the March North Sea Brent contract was taking 57 cents, at $89.91 a barrel. The same-maturity contract on light sweet crude oil (WTI) listed on the Nymex traded for 63 cents, at 87.24 dollars a barrel.

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