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OF Bulletin du matin

27/01/2022
Categories: General Information

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Fear of rapid monetary tightening in the US should push equities down. The Eurostoxx 50 at 4,164.60 points (+2.12%), the CAC 40 at 6,981.96 points (+2.11%), the DAX 40 at 15,459.39 points (+2.22%), the FTSE 100 at 7,469.78 points (+1.33%), the SMI at 12,098.26 points (+1.28%), the AEX at 752.43 points (+1.70%), the BEL 20 at 4,080.15 points (+1.25%), the IBEX 35 at 8,620.20 points (+1.66%), the DJIA at 34,168.09 points (-0.38%), the Nasdaq at 13,542.12 points (+0.02%), the S&P 500 at 4,349.93 points (-0.15%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,170.30 points (-3.11%).

Regarding exchange rates, the variation compared to the close in New York indicates that the EUR/USD appears at 1.1219 (-0.20%), the EUR/JPY at 128.64 (-0.22%) and USD/JPY at 114.67 (-0.01%).

Another dark day is shaping up for global markets on Thursday. Major European equity indices are expected to open sharply lower as investors worry about the possible pace of interest rate hikes in the United States this year and await the first estimate of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth trimester. Around 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract fell 169 points, or 2.4%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 40 lost 374 points, or 2.4%, and that on the FTSE 100 lost 128 points, or 1.7%.

The Fed had set two prerequisites for an increase in the cost of money: a return of the labor market to full employment and a price increase of more than 2%. These two objectives have been achieved, she underlined on Wednesday, by withdrawing from her press release the sentence used since March 2020 concerning her policy of reinforced support for the economy due to the health crisis. The institution also validated a final series of purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage debt, which will end the quantitative easing (QE) program in March. The Fed did not provide a timeline for shrinking its $9 trillion portfolio of securities. But discussions are continuing on this subject and the process will be initiated after the start of the rate hike, the central bank said.

In this context, Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) fell 0.4% to 34,168.90 points, and the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.2% to 4,349.93 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.02% to 13,542.12 points. In Asia, the Nikkei index fell 3.1% in Tokyo. At the end of the session. The Hang Seng, the flagship index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 2.6% and the Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%. Futures contracts on the main American stock indices showed parallel declines of between 1.2% and 1.7%, suggesting an opening in the red on Wall Street. Investors' attention is now turning to a series of economic indicators expected on Thursday and Friday, including US GDP, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. (Paris time). Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal anticipate growth of 5.5% in annualized terms, after rising 2.3% in the third quarter. The U.S. Household Income and Expenditure report which also includes the PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will also be scrutinized on Friday.

Yields on US 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest level in more than a week on Wednesday, following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. The yield on the two-year bond rose to a new 52-week high. Yields rose during Jerome Powell's speech, even as he said central bankers had made no decisions on the pace of future rate hikes and would make final choices on how to reduce the balance sheet of the central bank, which amounts to nearly 9,000 billion dollars, during the "next meetings".

The euro retreated Thursday morning against the dollar, which is supported by the prospect of marked monetary tightening this year in the United States. BNP Paribas estimates that if US inflation picks up further, the Fed could raise rates about six times this year.

Crude oil futures fell Thursday morning, after hitting their highest levels in seven years the previous day on fears of a Russian offensive in Ukraine. At 7:25 a.m., the March North Sea Brent contract was down 66 cents to $89.30 a barrel. The same term contract on light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex yielded 71 cents, at 86.64 dollars a barrel.

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