Lionel Zinsou returns for La Tribune Afrique to his commitments, from Southbridge Group to his remarkable entry into the board of directors of Attijariwafa Bank.

The former Prime Minister of Benin insists on the urgent need to rationalize African issues in order to put an end to the “folklore” interpretations associated with the continent. Africa is expected to invest between USD 130 billion and USD 170 billion per year in its infrastructure, while investments reached USD 62 billion in 2016, according to the AfDB's African Economic Outlook 2018 report: how to attract more FDI?

Lionel Zinsou - We have to put things into perspective, because in terms of FDI, Africa receives much more than 20 years ago, following a series of improvements that took place in the early 2000s quite dramatically .

This movement was driven by the “big emerging countries”. There has also been a diversification of investors: the Chinese, the Japanese, the Malaysians, but also the Turks or the Brazilians have arrived.

Then, portfolio investments, which are indirectly productive investments, also increased significantly. We have entered the “adult age” of investing in Africa.

Today, FDI represents 5% of Africa's GDP, while investment in Africa fluctuates between 20% and 25% of GDP depending on the year. FDI represent only 1/5 of the total. However, there is always a form of folklore whenever we think of Africa, but as in any country in the world, it is first and foremost the nationals who invest in their country, the savings remain in their hands.

However, the level of investment remains insufficient to sustain growth and achieve an inclusive stage of development in many countries...

For the moment, there is more growth in Africa than in South Korea, but still a little less than in China. However, if we want to experience “Asian-style” growth, we need to make an extra savings effort and we need more financial intermediaries and more professional finance. An investment rate equal to or greater than 30% of GDP would be the key to very strong growth. So we can do better.

Why is it so difficult to get out of an overvaluation of risk that would strengthen investments?

In terms of savings from abroad, Africa receives, in absolute terms, 5 times more than at the beginning of the 2000s, but this is still much lower than all the other countries. There are assumptions that there are more performance and fewer governance problems in Asia and Latin America than in Africa: which is not the case!

Fortunately, this perception is beginning to wane. I started doing advocacy for Africa about fifteen years ago to set the record straight, because I was fed up with the clichés and the overestimation of the risks. Things are changing and interest in Africa is growing because, to put it simply, for 20 years we have achieved 3 times European growth per year.

How do you analyze the multiplicity of players on the continent who come to compete with historical partners?

Every time there is a crisis somewhere: Africa clinks glasses! Advocacy for the resistance of African growth is often undermined by the fact that as soon as a short-term problem appears somewhere, Afro-pessimism returns and people say: look at Africa cracking with its oil, its uranium , its manganese...

No ! Of all the continents, Africa is the continent where the crisis of 2008-2009 and the European crisis of 2011-2013 had the least impact. Nevertheless, this view of Africa has nevertheless evolved, not because of the most traditional investors, but thanks to emerging countries, which has awakened Europeans.

Americans and Europeans ask themselves: what did the Chinese, Brazilians or Indians see that would have escaped us? Why does China, which accounted for 1% of Africa's imports at the end of the 1990s, now account for 15%? How to explain that trade between the United States and Africa has fallen by half, all the more so under the Obama presidency? What has changed is the dynamism of the “emerging” which challenged the other actors.

The fruits of African growth often remain barely perceptible: how do you explain this?

The gaze of foreigners on Africa is truncated and this is due in particular to the growth figures which are distorted. Most foreigners think the numbers are overstated. However, each time we carry out a revision of the national accounts, we realize that they are still underestimated!

African opinion considers that the development is not there. But if we did not develop, how can we explain that infant mortality, which remains the highest in the world, has been collapsing for 20 years and that life expectancy is increasing like never before on the continent? Central African countries had less than 50 years of life expectancy at independence and today they are gaining 1 year of life expectancy every year.

Public opinion does not see this. Progress is being made at all levels, including agriculture. Abroad, many still think that Ethiopia has not emerged from famine...

No one demonstrates in the streets to congratulate themselves on this progress, yet the most synthetic indicator of development is undoubtedly the increase in life expectancy. This progress is masked by population growth, which absorbs 2/3 of growth.

There are more poor every year, but there is less and less poverty and more and more middle classes. People are not interested in the fact that the middle classes have roughly doubled in ten years, but in the increase in the number of poor people.

There is a form of irrationality in the treatment of African issues in general. It is still difficult to accept the paradoxes. Many still see Africa through its pandemics and slums, including analysts and intellectuals who still too often hold a Manichean discourse.

How is the company Southbrige, which you founded in 2017 with economist Donald Kaberuka, developing?

We are continuing the activities of this investment bank dedicated solely to Africa, which today benefits from a presence in Paris, Casablanca, Kigali, Abidjan and soon in London.

Will an establishment in Benin be possible one day?

[Laughs] I rented offices in Cotonou two years ago and they are still empty. I believed detected that I was not welcome in Benin except for two or three details: convictions, measure of ineligibility, tax controls... I am considered, it seems to me, as being rather unwelcome, this which slows down our implementation.

Precisely, how do you view the political situation in Benin?

Benin is not the worst country in Africa, but it is the only country that has made a setback of 30 years! [Laughs] Even countries that are doing poorly in governance and integrity or ethics, remain stable in their bad practices or improve slightly. We were number 1 in terms of civil liberties, freedom of the press, justice, labor law or the right to strike, for example.

At the political level, we knew the alternation with an opposition which was maintained and today: all that has disappeared. This regression is striking. In my opinion, this will be a brief parenthesis, because public opinion is completely against this situation.

When you have 85% boycott of a sham election [voters massively boycotted the legislative elections last April, after the eviction of a large part of the opposition, editor's note], it is even more effective than if you had an 85% majority vote. It is clear that public opinion in Benin remains very attached to democracy.

In the midst of debates on the CFA franc, is ECOWAS ready to adopt the Eco?

The making of the euro was the product of a long process. We went through the ecu which was a currency of account and therefore did not circulate. It was necessary to reach a certain convergence and to ratify many treaties.

This process was based on a single market. The same preparations and the same convergences are needed in Africa to arrive at a single currency. However, convergence is very advanced. Bringing countries like Guinea, Ghana, Mauritania, Gambia or Sierra Leone to convergence is not very complicated, they are relatively homogeneous countries, but it will be necessary to expand the Eco in stages, starting with the most similar countries.

Nigeria representing more than half of the GDP of ECOWAS: this is where the needs for convergence and transformation of the economies are concentrated [...] In addition, Nigeria has a melting currency while the other countries have fixed parity currencies. While the franc zone has almost no inflation - between 0 and 2 -, Nigeria is recording inflation in 2 digits!

You recently joined the Board of Directors of Attijariwafa Bank: is this a way for Morocco to benefit from your interpersonal skills to strengthen its positions in sub-Saharan Africa?

The Central Bank wanted to integrate independent representatives into the Board of Directors, which is essentially made up of shareholders. It was also looking for financiers from sub-Saharan Africa, which ends up representing almost 40% of the results of the largest Moroccan banks. However, when you are looking for a sub-Saharan financier, you find me quite easily [Laughs].

What is your analysis of the debates surrounding Morocco's integration into ECOWAS?

I am a firm supporter of Morocco's integration into ECOWAS. There are classic resistor types. Employers in some countries fear the advance of Morocco which could tomorrow compete with them on their own ground, for lack of customs barriers and through total freedom of movement and investment.

In Morocco, some wonder if this integration into ECOWAS will not be followed by massive migrations in their country. This is all fantasy. It was the same thing during the European construction with the Italians and the Portuguese before their integration. This never happens!

Just look at Morocco's balance of payments to understand that one of the kingdom's problems is the structural deficit in its trade balance. Before thinking that Morocco is a great power to invade the markets, we must ask ourselves why it has such a structural trade deficit problem? This question is often unknown to Sub-Saharans who imagine an “all-powerful” Morocco.

When ECOWAS starts in Tangier and ends in Calabar, it will be a dynamic market. There is a lot more growth in sub-Saharan Africa than in Morocco, but there is a lot more logistics, services and engineering in Morocco, which would make it a perfectly complementary set. Each would gain qualitatively; areas of competition that would be self-destructive do not exist, they are fantasies.