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OF Morning Newsletter

05/10/2021
Categories: General Information

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Equity markets are expected to rise ahead of PMI indices in the eurozone and the US. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,996.41 points (-0.96%), the CAC 40 at 6,477.66 points (-0.61%), the DAX 40 at 15.036.55 points (-0.79%), the FTSE 100 at 7,011,01 points (-0.23%), the SMI at 11,582.35 points (+0.06%), the AEX at 757.20 points (-1.24%), the BEL 20 at 4,116.92 points (-0.49%), the IBEX 35 at 8,791.70 points (-0.09%), the DJIA at 34,002.92 points (-0.94%), the Nasdaq at 14,255.48 points (-2.14%), the S&P 500 at 4,300.46 points (-1.30%) and the Nikkei at 225 27,755.54 points down 2.42%.

On the exchange side, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opened at 1.1598 down 0.19%, EUR/JPY remained stable at 128.91 and USD/JPY at 111.19 with an increase of 0.23%.

Investors will be watching Tuesday for industrial production figures in August and the PMI for services in September. IHS Markit's preliminary estimate, released on September 23, showed the index falling to 56 in September, its lowest level in five months, from 56.3 in

August.

European stock markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday, recovering some of the ground lost on Monday, while investors await the final figures for September's PMI services in the eurozone and the United States. At 7:45, the CAC 40 futures contract gained 14 points, or 0.2%, according to data from the IG Markets broker. The DAX contract increased by 37 points, or 0.25%, and the FTSE 100 contract increased by 21 points, or 0.3%. Gains could remain fragile, however, as Asian markets pulled back on Tuesday, in the wake of Wall Street the day before. Investors are worried about the health of the Chinese real estate sector and the impact that rising crude prices, currently at their highest level since 2014, will have on inflation. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index dropped 2.5% in Tokyo and the Kospi fell 2.1% in Seoul. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.2%

.

Concerned with negotiations in Congress on raising the debt ceiling and plans for infrastructure investment and social reforms, Wall Street ended sharply lower on Monday. Technology stocks saw the biggest declines during the session and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.1% to 14,255.48 points. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA), for its part, lost 0.9% to 34,002.92 points, and the broader S&P 500 index fell by 1.3% to 4,300.46

points.

U.S. Treasury bond yields rose Tuesday morning, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond, the market's benchmark stock, remained below 1.5%. At 7:45am, the 10-year Treasury bond yield gained 1.3 basis points, to 1.496%

.

The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday, supported by strong demand for safe haven assets. The greenback is expected to continue rising in the short term, given tensions between China and the United States and the risks associated with the struggling Chinese real estate developer Evergrande, believes Oanda. Morgan Stanley also believes that the recent rebound in the US currency is not over and that the euro could fall as much as $1.14 before the end of the year. The surge in gas prices in Europe is also expected to boost the dollar, which will benefit from high demand for safe haven assets, while the impact of this price increase on economic activity will reduce the probability of a tightening of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy

, says James Lord.

Oil contracts continued to rise on Tuesday, still buoyed by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to keep their production trajectory unchanged. Prices of sweet light crude (WTI) listed on Nymex ended Monday at their highest level in nearly seven years. OPEC+ announced on Monday that it would maintain the increase in production to 400,000 barrels per day in November. At 7:35am, the December North Sea Brent contract earned 20 cents at $81.46 per barrel. The November contract for light sweet crude (WTI) traded on Nymex was 14 cents at $77.76 per barrel

.
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