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OF Bulletin du matin

29/09/2021
Categories: General Information

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While the bosses of the major central banks are expected at the ECB Forum, equities should attempt a rebound. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 4,058.82 points with a drop of 2.56%, the CAC 40 at 6,506.50 points (-2.17%), the DAX 40 at 15,248.56 points (-2.09 %), the FTSE 100 at 7,028.10 points (-0.50%), the SMI at 11,485.58 points (-1.76%), the AEX at 773.71 points (-1.90%), the BEL 20 at 4,124.07 points (-1.27%), the IBEX 35 at 8,769.40 points (-2.59%), the DJIA at 34,299.99 points (-1.63%), the Nasdaq at 14,546.68 points (-2.83%), the S&P 500 at 4,352.63 points (-2.04%) and the Nikkei 225 at 29,563.87 points, down 2.05%.

Regarding exchange rates, the variation compared to the close in New York shows that the EUR/USD pair remained stable at 1.1685, the EUR/JPY at 130.30 (+0.01%) and USD/JPY at 111.52 with a rise of 0.01%.

European equity markets are expected to attempt a rebound on Wednesday at the open, despite Wall Street's pullback on Tuesday night and high bond yields continuing to reflect inflation fears. At 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract gained 29 points, or 0.5%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX took 46 points, or 0.3%, and that on the FTSE 100 advanced by 6 points, or 0.1%. Trade should nevertheless remain cautious after the sell-off seen on Wall Street, driven by inflation fears, rising bond yields and tough negotiations over the federal state budget and the ceiling of the debt in the United States.

On Tuesday, the ten-year US Treasury bond rate reached 1.541%, continuing to rise for the fifth consecutive session. The yield on the 30-year bond rose to 2.089% after rising above the 2% mark the day before for the first time since mid-August. In this context, Wall Street ended in sharp decline. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) fell 1.6% to 34,299.99 points, and the broader S&P 500 index fell 2% to 4,352 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.8% to 14,546 points. In Congress, Republican Senators blocked the latest move by Democrats to raise the debt ceiling, intensifying the ongoing standoff between the two parties. A few hours earlier, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had warned that her ministry would no longer be able to finance federal government spending from October 18 if parliamentarians did not agree on an increase in the ceiling. on the debt. The Republican Senators having sided against the increase in the debt ceiling, the elected Democrats find themselves in the obligation to find a rescue plan in order to avoid a payment default. At the same time, the elected Democrats are unable to agree on the amount of the infrastructure and social reform plans which are also the subject of tough negotiations. This situation led the President of the United States, Joe Biden, to cancel a trip to Chicago to try to advance the talks.

In Asia, equity markets fell Wednesday morning, in the wake of Wall Street. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 2.6%, the Shanghai Composite index dropped 1.6% and the Hang Seng of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell by 0.3%.

Yields on US Treasury bonds stabilized on Wednesday morning after rising sharply the day before, on fears of inflation and difficult congressional negotiations on the debt ceiling increase and the next federal budget . At 7:40 a.m., the yield on the ten-year Treasury bill, the market's benchmark, was trading at 1.532% after hitting 1.541% on Tuesday evening.

The euro is trading slightly higher against the dollar on Wednesday morning, but the greenback is expected to encounter strong demand after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he expects inflation to remain high and predicted two interest rate hikes in 2022. The central banker also said the Fed should start shrinking its balance sheet as soon as it completes the process of phasing out its asset purchases. The CBA bank estimates that the Fed should reduce its asset purchases by $15 billion per month starting in December and that it will complete this "tapering" in July 2022. It also anticipates a 25 basis point hike in the rate federal funds in December 2022. The reassessment of the Fed's rate hike schedule will continue to play in favor of the dollar in the coming weeks, says CBA.

Oil futures fell on Wednesday as falling stocks and deteriorating consumer confidence in the United States raised concerns about near-term energy demand. At 7:35 a.m., the November contract on Brent North Sea oil lost $1.39 to $77.70 a barrel. That of the same maturity on light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex yielded 1.36 dollars, at 73.93 dollars a barrel.

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