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OF Morning Bulletin

08/09/2021
Categories: General Information

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Equity markets expected to decline before the Fed's Beige Book and ECB meeting. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 4,225.01 points down 0.50%, the CAC 40 at 6,726.07 points (-0.26%), the DAX 30 at 15.843.09 points (-0.56%), the FTSE 100 at 7,149.37 points (-0.53%), the SMI at 12,344.38 points (-0.69%), the AEX at 794.73 points (-0.48%), the BEL 20 at 4.294.47 points (-0.47%), the IBEX 35 at 8,894.50 points (+0.14%), the DJIA at 35,100.00 points (-0.76%), the Nasdaq at 15.374.33 points (+0.07%), the S&P 500 at 4,520.03 points (-0.34%) and the Nikkei 225 at 30,036.47 points, up 0.40%.

As for the exchange rate, the change from the close in New York shows EUR/USD opening at 1.1844 up 0.01%, EUR/JPY at 130.63 (+0.02%) and USD/JPY at 110.30 up 0.01%.

Investors will follow France's July foreign trade figures on Wednesday. They will also react to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies' (INSEE) upward revision of the growth forecast for the French economy in 2021. Insee now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.25%, compared with the 6% previously expected. On the corporate side, Scor is organizing an investor day. Airbus announced Tuesday evening that it received 102 commercial aircraft orders in August, a figure significantly higher than the average for the previous months. Digital support services provider Solutions 30 has signed an agreement with Open Dutch Fiber to deploy the operator's network in the Netherlands. The framework agreement covers several projects and has a duration of five years. The first project will start in the fourth quarter of 2021, Solutions30 said.

European equity markets are expected to continue their pullback on Wednesday, as investors' attention turns to central banks ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday. At 7:35 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was giving up 12 points, or 0.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX contract was losing 15 points, or 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 contract was giving up 29 points, or 0.4%. While the Delta variant maintains uncertainty about the global economic recovery and the end of extraordinary monetary support measures, the Fed's Beige Book, which will be released after the close of European markets, will provide a qualitative overview of the economy.The Fed's Beige Book, which will be released after the close of the European markets, will provide a qualitative overview of the impact of this virus on activity, spending intentions and employment conditions in the United States, Oddo BHF economists said recently. Investors are concerned that the surge in new cases of Covid-19 across the Atlantic will cause the Federal Reserve to postpone its plan to taper its asset purchases. The Beige Book is prepared for the next Fed policy committee meeting, scheduled for September 21-22.

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday for the first session of the week across the Atlantic. The Nasdaq Composite index set a new record thanks to the rise of Apple, while industrial stocks suffered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 0.8 percent to 35,100 points and the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.3 percent to 4,520 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to 15,374.33 points. In Asia, the major indexes presented a mixed picture Wednesday as risk aversion seen on Wall Street spread. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 0.6%. The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.2% and in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was down 0.4%.

U.S. Treasury yields were down slightly Wednesday morning after gaining ground the day before. The yield on the 10-year bond reached its highest level in nearly two months on Tuesday. At 7:35 a.m., the rate on the 10-year Treasury note, the market's benchmark security, was at 1.371%, up from 1.373% Tuesday night. Ahead of the ECB meeting, Generali Investments says both supporters of accommodative monetary policy and those who prefer a more restrictive stance "all have valid arguments for either the status quo or a first step toward normalizing monetary policy." The ECB's growth and inflation projections are likely to be revised upwards on Thursday, but "the expected inflation rate at the end of the forecast period in 2023 is likely to be higher than the rate at the beginning of the forecast period.The ECB's growth and inflation projections are likely to be revised upwards on Thursday, but "the expected inflation rate at the end of the forecasting period, in 2023, is likely to remain well below the 2% target, suggesting that the forward guidance on rates will not change," said economist Martin Wolburg. Regarding the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases, the majority of the board of governors recognizes that the support measures adopted in response to the Covid-19 pandemic have become less necessary and that the transition can begin, Generali Investments believes.

The euro is little changed Wednesday morning against the dollar. However, the single currency could advance later this week as the ECB is expected to announce on Thursday a reduction in the pace of asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in the fourth quarter, says TD Securities. The ECB is expected to keep the rest of its monetary policy unchanged and sharply revise up its inflation forecast for this year and next, predicts Mark McCormick, TD's currency strategist. Oil contracts are recovering slightly Wednesday morning after being hurt the day before by a strong dollar and demand concerns. Investors are awaiting the Energy Department's weekly report on U.S. oil inventories, which will be released on Thursday, a day later than usual, due to the U.S. market closing on Monday for a holiday. At 7:25 a.m., the November contract for North Sea Brent crude was up 14 cents at $71.83 a barrel. The Nymex-listed October light sweet crude (WTI) contract was up 24 cents at $68.59 a barrel.

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