The barrel of brent is at its highest since March, at the start of the pandemic. Markets focus on good news about vaccination campaigns and demand in Asia, ignoring the worrying rise in crude inventories in the United States.

A symbolic milestone has been crossed. Thursday, the barrel of Brent quoted more than 50 dollars, for the first time since the beginning of March, at the start of the pandemic. It was up nearly 4% at the end of the afternoon, driven by the hope of an upcoming distribution of vaccines against Covid-19 in a growing number of countries. The barrel of American WTI was also at its highest since the end of winter, at more than 47 dollars.

“Traders welcome the start of vaccination campaigns within a few days in the United States and Canada, writes Bjornar Tonhaugen, from Rystad Energy. It's much faster than expected just a few weeks ago. Brent is also buoyed by the prospect of a new plan to help households and businesses in the United States.

Another stimulus, the agreement signed between OPEC and Russia last week. Faced with consumption that is slow to pick up again, the 23 exporting countries have decided to increase their production in a much lower proportion than expected at the start of 2021.

Back to normal in India

Demand is sustained in China and India, respectively the world's largest and third largest importers of crude. The refiner Indian Oil estimates that the consumption of petroleum products has almost returned to normal in India. In Brazil, fuel consumption has even exceeded its pre-pandemic level. Finally, crude oil prices are driven by the weakness of the dollar, which makes black gold cheaper for major consumer countries.

Market optimism is all the more remarkable as the latest statistics on oil demand are far from reassuring. In the United States, crude inventories started to rise again, reversing a downward trend since July. They rose by more than 15 million barrels in one week, a volume described as "enormous" by HSBC analysts. US inventories are now 11% above their average level for the past five years. Penalized by containment measures, gasoline consumption is falling across the Atlantic.

Stocks to sell

The price of brent is still a long way from the 70 dollars it came close to at the start of the year. He remains torn between good news on vaccines and bad news on the resurgence of contaminations in Europe and the United States, note analysts from MUFG bank. Further rising prices “will require patience given the large inventory that will take time to sell into the market,” they warn.

Global demand is still well below normal. It would currently stand at 92 million barrels per day, estimates MUFG, still 7.5% less than at the same time last year.