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MARKET POINT-Oil in support of equities while waiting for employment in the USA

05/12/2020
Source : Reuters - Les actualités en français
Categories: Index/Markets Raw materials

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 * Slight rise in sight on Wall Street, pending the jobs report
    * In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index gained 0.24%, the CAC 40 in Paris 0.28%
    * OPEC+ decisions lift oil
    * The dollar fails to rebound

    by Marc Angrand
    PARIS, December 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street is expected to rise and the
European stock markets rose mid-session on Friday, the rise in the price of the
oil and the hope of a post-Brexit agreement prevailing in the face of doubts
on the rapid availability in large quantities of the vaccine from Pfizer -BioNTech
against the coronavirus.
    The monthly employment figures in the United States could however
influence the rest of the session.
    Futures contracts on major New York indices suggest for
the moment an increase of 0.3% to 0.4%.
    In Paris, the CAC 40 gains 0.28% to 5,589.99 points around 11:45 GMT
after a peak of more than nine months at 5,616.62. In London, the FTSE 100
took 0.9% and hit a nine-month high, while in Frankfurt, the Dax
, less exposed to the energy sector, is practically unchanged.
    The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 0.16%, the FTSEurofirst
300 by 0.25% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.24%. The latter and the CAC 40
for the time being show near-stability over the whole of the week after
four weekly increases in a row. 
    On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite posted a record on Thursday, thanks between
others the continuation of discussions in Congress on a new recovery plan for
the American economy. A long-awaited plan as the monthly report of the
Department of Labor should confirm the slowdown in the recovery with,
according to the Reuters consensus, less than 500,000 jobs were created in November.
    At the same time, the decisions of OPEC+ on the slow and gradual rise
of its crude oil production favor the rise in the price of a barrel.
    These two factors relegate, at least temporarily, to the background the
fear of a slower-than-expected deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine from
Pfizer and BioNTech.
    The context thus remains favorable to risk-taking, and in the first place
to equities: according to weekly figures from Bank of America and EPFR, the
equity funds made another $9.7 billion last week
in net inflows, bringing their collection to 115 billion in four weeks, a
record.
    
    WALL STREET VALUES TO FOLLOW
    
    VALUES IN EUROPE 
    The oil and gas sector has by far the best
performance of the day, with a gain of 2.34% for its Stoxx index. AT
Paris, Total takes 2.29%, CGG 5.95% and TechnipFMC
5.54%, the biggest rise in the SBF 120.
    Also at the top of the index, Dassault Aviation
jumped 5.37%, taking advantage of progress in negotiations for a
order of 48 Rafale by Indonesia, a contract estimated at five billion
euros by Credit Suisse .
    On the downside, BioNTech loses 4.32% in Frankfurt after the downward revision
vaccine production forecasts for the next few weeks.
    
    RATE 
    The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds is
virtually unchanged pending employment figures, at 0.9294%,
interrupting the rise linked to the anticipation of a massive stimulus plan
likely to drive up inflation.
    Yields for the eurozone were also almost stable, at -0.555% for
the German Bund to ten years. 
    The latter hardly reacted to the announcement of a 2.9% increase, more
stronger than expected industrial orders in Germany in October.

    
    CHANGES 
    The dollar retreats for the fourth consecutive session against a basket of
reference currencies (-0.14%) and is now down by more than
1.3% since the start of the week.
    The euro is on the contrary one of the big winners of the week: at 1.2172
dollar, it gained almost 0.3% on the day and more than 1.7% on the
week. A rise which is not without worrying certain investors, such as
Barclays strategists, for whom a continued rise in the currency
single "could start to handicap the recovery of corporate profits
European".
    The British pound briefly edged higher against the
dollar and euro after statements by a manager
European speaking of an "imminent" agreement between London and Brussels on
post-Brexit, but it quickly erased its gains.
    
    OIL
    The oil market is up sharply and the price of a barrel of Brent is
approaches the 50 dollar mark the day after the compromise between major countries
producers to only slightly increase their pumping from the month
next.
    Brent rose 1.54% to $49.46 a barrel after peaking at 49.92,
its highest level since early March, and US light crude (West Texas
Intermediate, WTI) takes 1.62% to 46.38 dollars.
    Both should record their fifth consecutive week of
rise.
    
    MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR DECEMBER 4 
 COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
 US 1:30 p.m. Job creation November 469,000 638,000
                non-agricultural                                            
                Unemployment rate 6.8% 6.9%
                Average hourly wage 0.1% 0.1%
                - over one year 4.3% 4.5%
         3:00 p.m. Industrial orders October 0.8% 1.1%
   
    THE MARKET SITUATION:
    (Some data may show a slight shift)
    
  WALL STREET                                                     
                                                                  
 Indices Last Var. Var. %                      
                            points                        
 Dow Jones 30053.00 +121.00 +0.40%                      
                                                          
 S&P-500 3675.25 +10.75 +0.29%                      
 Nasdaq-100 12509.00 +46.75 +0.38%                      
                                                          
                                                                  
                                                                  
 "The Day Ahead" - Update on the next session at             
 Wall Street                                              
  The session                                                       
 former :                                             
 Closing Indices Var. Var. %YTD               
                            points                        
 Dow Jones 29969.52 +85.73 +0.29% +5.01%            
                                                          
 S&P 500 3666.72 -2.29 -0.06% +13.49%           
 Nasdaq 12377.18 -5.75 -0.05% +37.94%           
 Nasdaq 100 12467.13 +1.08 +0.01% +42.76%           
                                                          
                                                                  
  MARKETS                                                         
 EUROPEANS                                                
                                                                  
 Indices Last Var. Var. %YTD               
                            points                        
 Eurofirst 300 1516.46 +3.74 +0.25% -6.62%            
                                                          
 Eurostoxx 50 3522.73 +5.63 +0.16% -5.94%            
                                                          
 CAC 40 5,589.67 +15.31 +0.28% -6.50%            
 Dax 30 13,236.04 -16.82 -0.13% -0.10%            
 FTSE 6548.92 +58.65 +0.90% -13.17%           
 SMI 10348.83 +6.20 +0.06% -2.53%            
  The values to follow in Paris and in Europe:                     
                                                          
                                                                  
  CHANGES                                                         
                  Standby Price Var.% YTD               
 Euro/Dlr 1.2171 1.2140 +0.26% +8.57%            
 DLR/Yen 103.98 103.83 +0.14% -4.48%            
 Euro/Yen 126.58 126.11 +0.37% +3.80%            
                                                          
 Dlr/CHF 0.8898 0.8909 -0.12% -8.06%            
 Euro/CHF 1.0831 1.0818 +0.12% -0.19%            
                                                          
 Stg/Dlr 1.3464 1.3452 +0.09% +1.53%            
 Index $ 90.5910 90.7140 -0.14% -5.80%            
                                                                  
  RATE                                                            
                            Last Var. Spread/Bund
                                                  (pts)
                                                                  
 Future Bunds 175.0600 +0.1200                     
                                                          
 10-year Bund -0.5500 -0.0030                     
                                                          
 Bund 2 years -0.7350 -0.0090                     
                                                          
 10-year OATs -0.3224 -0.0100 +22.76            
                                                          
 10-year Treasury 0.9278 +0.0070                     
                                                          
 Treasury 2 years 0.1566 +0.0020                     
                                                                  
  OIL                                                         
 (in dollars) Previous Price Var Var. %YTD
                            you                             
 US light crude 46.38 45.64 +0.74 +1.62% -24.23%
                                                          
 Brent 49.46 48.71 +0.75 +1.54% -25.09%
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