Another day marked by the rise in oil prices. Yesterday, black gold continued to improve its gains and maintain its upward trend, which began almost three weeks ago as a result of promising coronavirus vaccine announcements.
Hopes for a rebound in global demand are growing more and more and prices are following, even approaching 50 dollars. At midday yesterday, Brent for the North Sea for January delivery was $48.52 on the London market after gaining 1.38% compared to Tuesday's close. As for the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for the same month, it rose by 1.11% to reach 45.41 dollars per barrel. It should be noted that these levels have not been reached since March 6, thanks to the positive evolution of vaccines and the first massive vaccination campaigns scheduled for next month.
In recent days, the Astra Zeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna laboratories have reported the good effectiveness of their future vaccines against Covid-19, a real lifesaver for the demand for black gold.
Prices are also improving thanks to signals from Opep+ about a likely adjustment to its reduction agreement. The increase in production of 1.9 million barrels per day has been questioned in recent days by the influential members of the alliance, and the statements made in this perspective seem to have been taken into account by the market. The members of Opep+ will meet at the beginning of next week and their approach could well be adopted in order to maintain the cuts in progress since last August, i.e. 7.7 mbd. The transition to 5.8 mbd from January could then be postponed for a period of three to six months, according to observers' forecasts.
In the meantime, the Secretary General of OPEC, Mohamed Barkindo, has returned to global demand for crude oil, estimating that it will reach nearly 104 mbd by 2025. Speaking at an energy outlook forum organized by the Crescent oil and gas group on Monday, Mr. Barkindo said that “the outlook for crude oil may seem anemic now, but we expect demand growth to gradually normalize as the world recovers from the Covid-19 shock.”
“Our analysts predict that global oil demand will return to relatively robust annual growth and reach almost 104 million b/d by 2025,” he said, based on the OPEC annual report published last October on the global oil outlook. In this context, he stressed that, in the longer term, a number of factors will stimulate consumption, such as demographic and economic growth, particularly in developing and emerging economies. “We expect the global economy to double from 2019 to 2045, to $258 trillion, and that the population will increase by at least 20%, to $9.5 billion,” he added.
On the other hand, OPEC forecasts that oil will remain the dominant fuel in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future, accounting for almost 28% in 2045, followed by gas at around 25%