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CURRENCIES: THE DOLLAR SUPPORTED BY A POSITIVE RATE DIFFERENTIAL

17/09/2020
Source : cerclefinance.com
Categories: Economy/Forex Index/Markets

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Ultra-calm post-Fed day on FOREX, with rare differences of more than 0.2%: the Pound fell by just 0.2% to $1.2940/$, while the BoE (Bank of England) is talking about negative rates for the first time since the start of the Covid crisis, to which is added a Brexit that will not be a pleasure with the EU (and the United States) are also threatening in case of non-compliance with the Boris Johnson's commitments on Ireland).


The Dollar (-0.1% against the Euro at 1.1830) was not penalized by the Wall Street downturn (-2% in 48 hours for the S&P 500) or by the rather disappointing US figures published at 2.30 p.m

.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that 860,000 new applicants for unemployment benefits last week, down from the previous week (893,000, revised from the first estimate of 884,000).

The upturn therefore reached -33,000 but analysts expected a sharper drop, to 850,000 registrations.

The Commerce Department reported a 5.1% drop in housing starts (CVS) in the month of August in the United States, to 1,416,000 annualized, where the consensus expected 1.45 million.

The number of building permits, which are supposed to prefigure future housing starts, fell slightly by 0.9% to 1,470,000, a level also lower than the economists' average estimate of 1.53 million.

The Dollar is benefiting from the fall in the yield on European sovereign debt (long-term rates have been relaxing regularly since September 1 in Europe) while the remuneration of US T-Bonds has remained relatively stable in the meantime.

Our OATs erased another 1.8 Pts base at -0.24% -16 Pts in 3 weeks, the Bunds posted -0.49% (-10Pts in September) while T-Bonds increased from 0.725% to 0.685%.

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