After the shock recorded in April and May, the foreign exchange market has since regained serenity. The fall in activity and trade due to health measures taken by governments to stop the spread of the coronavirus had increased currency volatility

OCP exports play a major role in improving the foreign exchange position of banks. It is also supported by the fall in oil tanker imports. On the other hand, MRE flows and tourism revenues have fallen sharply.

In the space of a month between March and April, the Dirham lost 3.5% against the trading basket. “At the start of the lockdown, companies rushed to cover their position, which also explains the behavior of the Dirham

Today, operators are quite serene,” notes a market professional. Since the beginning of June, the currency has appreciated by 2% against the euro/dollar, reflecting in particular the fairly comfortable currency position of banks. It is surplus of 6.5 billion dirhams. “The Covid-19 shock was managed quite well by trading floors since they did not need to use Bank Al-Maghrib,” notes Olivier Bru, BMCI Capital Market Manager

“One of the major successes of the reform of the exchange rate regime has been the development of the interbank market,” he believes. The last currency auction was in March 2018. The recovery of the foreign exchange position of banks is largely due to the resumption of trade

“The volumes we currently handle are still down by around 10% compared to 2019, in line with the evolution of trade balance flows. The trade deficit has improved, due to the sharp drop in import flows,” Olivier Bru notes

OCP exports play a major role in improving the foreign exchange position of banks. It is also supported by the fall in oil tanker imports. On the other hand, MRE flows (banknote flows represent around 40 billion dirhams per year) have fallen significantly due to travel restrictions and the recession in the host countries. The economy in the tourism sector is under particular scrutiny. Travel revenue fell by 33% in the first six months of the year

The fall in foreign trade, MRE transfers and tourism revenues are expected to worsen the current account deficit to 10.3%. This scenario played a role in the government's decision to draw the $3 billion LPL. It has strengthened foreign exchange reserves to more than 292 billion dirhams and also contributes to the stability of the currency.

In addition, two Treasury exits from the international financial market are also planned. It would be a transaction on the euro market to repay the 2010 Eurobond. Another $1 billion issue would be carried out on the dollar market to consolidate foreign exchange reserves.

Some professionals are wondering about the benefits of this second operation, knowing that foreign exchange reserves have never been so high. For others, financing the recovery of the economy will require mobilizing all the levers

“The economic recovery plan is quite ambitious and we cannot rule out the possibility that the LPL will be used to finance the needs of the Treasury,” said one analyst. According to Bank Al-Maghrib's forecasts, foreign exchange reserves would be around 219 billion dirhams at the end of the year