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Currencies: The Dollar continues to fall, weekly and quarterly

14/08/2020
Source : boursorama.com
Categories: Index/Markets

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The Dollar fell against all currencies, by -0.3% on average, and only rose against the Canadian Dollar (+0.3%).

However, today's US figures were solid and even beyond expectations: they do not explain the fall of the $ by -0.35% towards 1.1850/E, nor the fall of -0.4% against the yen towards 106.45.

More generally, the Euro is up 0.5% against the $ this week and +4% in 4 weeks, about half of the +9.5% increase observed since mid-May.

Forex traders continue to mention in every interview the FED's promise of low rates at least until 2024, and if Trump is re-elected, he would further reduce taxes and taxes on businesses, which would sharply increase deficits and accelerate $ emissions (printing money).

Today's figures came out above expectations even though retail sales in the United States increased by only +1.2% according to the Department of Commerce, a score quite far from the expected 2.3%... but Wall Street can be reassured with non-car sales climbing by +1.9% (against an estimated +1.2%).

Industrial production in the United States increased by 3% in July according to the Federal Reserve (in accordance with the average estimate of economists) after an increase of 5.7% in June (revised figure from an initial estimate of 5.4%)... but over 12 months, production fell by -8.2%, we are still far from the return to normal and the “V” recovery that Larry Kudlow reiterated on Thursday evening that “this is still the scenario Plus likely'.

For its part, the capacity utilization rate in American industry rose from 2.1% to 70.6% last month, a rate 0.1 point higher than the consensus.

Michigan's confidence index rose slightly, from 72.5 to 72.8... but it's better than the 72 expected, so positive for the markets.

Inventories of American businesses fell by -1.1% in June (after a -2.3% drop in May) according to data presented by the Department of Commerce on Friday.

Surprise on the productivity side with a jump of +7.3% (against an estimated +4.4%)... and unit costs exploded by +12.2% (against +6.6% expected).

All these figures are too far from expectations to be credible and therefore, the markets do not take them into account.

“Stats” were also published in Europe this morning: the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France accelerated to +0.4% over one month, after +0.1% in June, according to INSEE.

Seasonally adjusted, prices even increased by 0.7% in July, after +0.1% the previous month.

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