Oil demand is expected to fall by around 8 million barrels per day in 2020, the transport sector
being the hardest hit by the consequences of Covid-19; jet fuel demand fell sharply
by 90% in April and that of gasoline fell by 35%. As economies begin to open up again, the
request will resume. However, some sectors, such as aviation, will take some time to
to sort out. “During the year, we estimate the fall in demand for kerosene at around 40%, that
diesel at 9% and that of gasoline at 6%", specifies Gérard Delsad, CEO of Vitol.
Although there are no tensions on the food market, a period of uncertainty is beginning with
northern hemisphere cereal crops still in the fields. “There is then a risk of seeing
strong reactions from producer States, in a context dominated by nationalist tendencies",
warns Ramon Esteve, president of STSA, the Swiss trade lobby. Which recalls the situation of 2008,
when some States had withheld their grain exports, in order to maintain domestic prices
low. Prices had then gone up around the world, which had notably led to the Initiative on
food speculation in Switzerland.
The situation is stable for coffee, which is experiencing neither a demand shock nor a supply shock. The
governments that have not banned exports. “Coffee consumption outside the home has
certainly dropped by two thirds, but was compensated in volume by the coffee at home", specifies Nicolas
Tamari, CEO of Sucafina, who adds that the price of coffee quoted in dollars has fallen following the devaluation of
40% of the Brazilian real.
As for cocoa, considered a luxury product, it has suffered only a slight drop in consumption.
“Price uncertainty could come from Ivory Coast and Ghana with the imposition of a new premium on
their exports", projects Ramon Esteve, board member of Ecom Agroindustrial, cocoa trader,
coffee and cotton. The price of the latter is under pressure because of the shutdown of the retail sale of textiles, not
considered a basic necessity. Its consumption will depend on the return of confidence in
the consumer. Which makes cotton one of the best crisis indicators.
The prices of non-ferrous metals are at the level of the end of 2019. “We expected more volatility, but
China, the main importer of copper, picked up very quickly and showed its desire to perform the
transactions", specifies Jean-Pierre Adamian, director of Transamine Trading.