In Africa, Moody's paints a black picture of the economic and social situation in oil-producing countries. In a report dated April 28, the American agency estimates that Brent, oil from the North Sea, will evolve over the rest of the year at an average of 35 dollars a barrel and American WTI around 30 dollars. Prices are expected to recover in 2021 to $40 and $45, respectively, due to a gradual improvement in economic activity.

In such a scenario, neither Algiers nor Abuja, even less Luanda, which draw up their finance laws on the assumptions of a barrel of oil above 50 dollars, have the means to meet their budgetary costs, which are partly inflationary cost of social peace. This situation risks degenerating into a deep financial crisis far worse than the experience of the global financial crisis, in its scale and scope. From this perspective, growing inequalities could fuel social discontent and political unrest in these countries. Moody's analysis goes beyond the three countries, which have similar democratic powers indexed to the barrel of oil and also concerns Libya, Cameroon and Congo. Alternatives to black gold must be found for all these countries at the risk of exposing themselves to a social and political crisis.