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On the global health risk of Covid-19 - The limits of coverage in Africa

01/04/2020
Source : AllAfrica
Categories: Rate

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1) Global health risk: With a very high contagiousness index of 1.5 to 3.5, Covid-19 has a rate
low mortality of around 3%. More than 177 countries have already been reached and more than 787,010 people
affected worldwide including: 19.45% in the USA, 13.28% in Italy, 11.58% in Spain, 11.17% in China and
44.52% elsewhere. The number of deaths noted amounts to more than 37,829, including 30.78% in Italy, 20.96% in
Spain, 9.41% in China, 6.16% in the USA and 32.69% other countries. Health management systems
developed countries are shaken.
Far from the peak of the pandemic, the very fragile health systems of the 45 affected countries in Africa are
destabilized. They have already recorded 1170 infections including 42.31% in Egypt, 31.37% in Algeria, 23.50% in
Morocco and 19.40% in Tunisia. In Black Africa, Burkina Faso accounts for 15.38%, Ghana 11.62% and
Senegal 8.97%. Of the 90 deaths recorded, 23.33% are in Egypt and also in Algeria, 6.6% in
Tunisia and also in Morocco, 4.44% in Burkina Faso and also in Ghana 4.44%. The Commission
Economic for Africa estimates the financing needs for the 54 African states at $144 billion.
2) Coverage strategies: The declaration of a state of health emergency leads States to put in place
unprecedented structures: a National Pandemic Management Coordination, a Task Force on its
economic and social impact, a National Response Committee and a panel of experts. States are closing
borders, confine populations, quarantine people at risk and establish the
curfew. The chloroquine phosphate treatment that stopped the disease in China does not
unanimity.
Unctad proposes the injection of $1 trillion in aid to support the global economy, the immediate cessation of
sovereign debt payments, significant debt relief for the countries most in difficulty, a "plan
Marshall” of health funded by Official Development Assistance, and capital controls. The ECB
supports to 750 billion? the countries of the European Union. G20 announces over $5 trillion in aid
in developing countries.
3) The limits of the measures: The aid promised in the form of loans to African States increases their
debt without covering their financing needs. AFD provides $1.8 million for French-speaking Africa,
the BEAC grants $14.6 million, the BOAD allocates $219.5 million, the BADEA offers $13.4 million. AfDB has
raised $3 billion on a social bond loan with a coupon of 0.75%, maturing in 3 years for a
order book of more than $4.6 billion.
Already, on May 16, 2018, the AfDB had issued a social bond loan for $1.4 billion with a
at 10 years, for a coupon of 0.875% per annum maturing on May 24, 2028, at the issue price of 98.938% for a
yield of 0.987%. The investors are: Banks and official institutions (53%) in 2020 against
33% in 2018, bank cash (27%) in 2020 compared to 29% in 2018, asset managers
(20%) in 2020 compared to 38% in 2018. They come from Europe (37%) in 2020 compared to 63% in 2018,
Americas (36%) versus 12% in 2018, Asia (17%) versus 15% in 2018, Africa and the Middle East (8%)
against 8% in 2018.
Locally, the National Bank of Ethiopia allocates more than $456 million to local private banks.
In the DRC, the Central Bank lowers its key credit rate from 9.0% to 7.5% and sets up a counter
special refinancing with a maturity ranging from 3 to 24 months. Senegal plans 1000 billion FCFA in aid
accompanied by a food component. Other countries such as Congo are considering a National Fund
of solidarity of 100 billion FCFA to support businesses and help vulnerable people.

Thus, the planetary health shock of Covid-2019 exposes the world economy to a financial crash.
The insufficiency of coverage in Africa requires recourse to the purchase of debt securities from actors
by the Central Bank to limit the nervousness of the financial markets and the predation of traders.
Provided that the States support this technique with responsible and inclusive management.

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