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Find all the economic and financial information on our Orishas Direct application to download on Play StoreEurostoxx 50 ends at 3,820.59 points +1.45%
CAC 40 at 6,498.02 points +1.59%
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Exchange rate at 06:50
Change from the close in New York
EUR/USD trading at 1.1104 -0.15%
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The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced on Wednesday evening that he had asked the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, to draw up "an economic and social resilience plan" in the coming days in order to respond to the difficulties linked to the war in Ukraine.
The economic growth of France will be "inevitably affected" by the conflict, indicated the head of state during a televised address.
Emmanuel Macron also announced that France would "amplify investment in defense".
While France is presiding over the Council of the European Union until June 30, Emmanuel Macron has indicated that he will defend "a strategy of European energy independence" to no longer depend on Russian gas in particular. This question will be addressed during the summit of EU Heads of State and Government to be held next week in Versailles, added the President of the Republic.
The technology and defense group Thales announced on Thursday that it expects an increase in its operating margin and organic growth of at least 2% this year, the company including in its forecasts a negative impact on its revenues of 100 million euros related to the conflict in Ukraine. The company also recorded strong growth in its results in 2021, with record cash generation.
Technip Energies, CGG and DBV Technologies are also presenting their annual results on Thursday, as are Manitou, Serge Ferrari, Groupe Flo, SES imagotag and Vitura.
On the macroeconomic side, the services sector PMI for February will be released at 9:50 am.
SHARES
European equity markets may find it difficult to orient themselves early in the session on Thursday, as investors analyze comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell while monitoring developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
At 7:15 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract rose 16.8 points, or 0.3%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 40 gained 38.5 points, or 0.3%, and that on the FTSE 100 rose by 9 points, or 0.1%.
Last night Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, as the offensive against kyiv stalled. Both cities remain under Ukrainian control. The country's officials estimate the number of civilian victims of the invasion at 2,000 and Moscow has acknowledged nearly 500 soldiers killed.
Investors will watch Thursday for the release of services PMI indices, unemployment figures and producer prices in the euro zone, as well as the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). In the United States, the focus will be on the weekly jobless claims and the services PMI indices, as well as on the second day of Jerome Powell's hearing in Congress as part of the semi-annual review of monetary policy.
The New York Stock Exchange closed sharply higher on Wednesday after the publication of a good indicator on employment and while investors wondered about the chances of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.
Despite the continued rise in oil prices, the market recovered after its decline the day before, while Russia said it was ready to discuss a ceasefire with Ukraine on Thursday.
During a hearing in Congress, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, also confirmed the scenario of a first interest rate hike in mid-March. However, he said he was in favor of a limited hike of 25 basis points, while some operators believed that the acceleration of inflation would encourage the Fed to take more forceful measures.
Jerome Powell's hearing "clarified his approach and that of the Fed regarding the withdrawal of stimulus measures in 2022, in the context of heightened uncertainty due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine", says Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Comerica Bank. Jerome Powell considers that the "full employment" aspect of his mandate has been largely fulfilled, he underlines.
“With inflation at a multi-decade high, the Fed is eager to get out of crisis mode,” says Bill Adams, while also seeking to “calm demand enough to keep inflation under control, but without stifling the recovery. "
A positive signal on the state of the American economy, the private sector in the United States created 475,000 net jobs last month, ADP and Moody's Analytics announced on Wednesday. Economists expected the creation of 400,000 jobs.
In Asia, equity markets moved higher on Thursday. The Nikkei index closed up 0.7% in Tokyo. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite was unchanged.
OBLIGATIONS
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell Thursday morning to 1.856%, after posting its biggest single-session decline in nearly two years on Wednesday and ending at 1.878%.
The decline followed statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike at the bank's next monetary policy committee (FOMC) meeting. Central, March 15 and 16.
"Given Powell's comments, it is clear that the Fed does not want to be an additional source of volatility and uncertainty in the context of ongoing geopolitical events," Deutsche Bank said. As a result, the central bank deemed it appropriate to take "a more cautious first step" in the normalization of its monetary policy, explains the German bank.
CHANGES
The euro gave up a little ground on Thursday morning against the dollar and the yen, while the greenback appreciated slightly against the Japanese currency.
According to Rabobank, fears that the conflict in Ukraine will weigh on growth in the euro zone could cause the single currency to slide further.
Inflation could stay high for longer than expected and growth will slow in the euro zone due to the conflict, said Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank.
"The news clearly shows that the Russian offensive against key cities in Ukraine is intensifying, which should support demand for safe assets," said the strategist. The decline of the euro against the dollar could therefore increase, according to Jane Foley.
OIL
Oil futures continue to gain ground on Thursday morning.
The main supporting factor for oil is the possibility that tough Western sanctions on Russia could drive the global crude market into deficit, TD Securities said.
Any additional sanctions or unforeseen interruptions in supply could cause oil prices to jump further in the short term, as this would heighten fears of a severe shortfall in supply. Under these conditions, it would not be surprising if crude jumped to around $145 a barrel, adds TD Securities.
Many crude buyers refuse to buy Russian oil "because it is currently almost impossible to obtain insurance for shipments from Russia or to find banks willing to finance these operations", explains Nicolas Daher, oil analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit.
"Russian volumes are very difficult to replace and buyers are competing against each other in a tight supply environment, which is driving up prices."
As of 7:30 a.m., the May North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract was up $3.91, or 3.5%, at $116.84 a barrel, while the April contract for light sweet crude oil (WTI ) listed on the Nymex took $3.79, or 3.4%, to $114.39 a barrel.
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