"While the prices of most agricultural commodities seem to have stabilized more recently, the factors that exerted downward pressure are still there", underlines the World Bank in its biannual report Commodity Markets Outlook of October which has just been published. 'be published. These factors include historically high stocks for certain cereals, notably rice and wheat, favorable weather conditions in certain major production regions, international trade tensions, low energy costs and a weakening demand for certain raw materials. Overall, the World Bank's Agricultural Price Index is down 2% in the third quarter of 2019 and is 3.3% lower than at the same time last year. Over 2019 as a whole, prices would fall by 5% before stabilizing in 2020. In April, the World Bank estimated that the drop would be 2.6% this year but that prices would rise by 1.7% in 2020. The correction is significant. Africa's rice imports continue to rise While flat at the start of the year, rice prices climbed almost 3% in the third quarter and are 4% more expensive than a year ago. Global production is expected to contract slightly this year due to very heavy rains in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and the Philippines, but conditions in China, Indonesia, Vietnam and elsewhere were good. Given the anticipated slight drop in demand, the stock/consumption ratio should be at its highest for 20 years.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

Corn prices fell 3% in the third quarter but are 8% higher than a year ago. Poor weather conditions in the United States have reduced sowing and world production is expected to fall sharply this year. But harvests in Europe, South Africa, Russia and Ukraine would be higher.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

The world wheat harvest promises to be record, at 765 million tonnes (Mt), up 5% over last season, while consumption is only expected to increase by 2.5%. It has been two decades since the stock-to-consumption ratio has been so high.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

The World Bank Oilseeds and Meals Index rebounded in the third quarter after falling to a 13-year low in the second quarter; it is 7% lower than the same period last year. The plunge in this third quarter compared to that in 2018 was quite drastic for palm oil (-8%), palm kernel oil (-32%) and soybean meal (-13%). This is explained by the good harvests expected in most producing countries, the trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as the drop in consumption for animal feed in China due to the epidemic of fever. African pig.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

The outlook for oilseed production remains favorable for the current campaign which will end in September 2020, expected to rise by 1% in 2019/20, particularly in the palm oil segment in Indonesia (50% of world production) where weather conditions are good. On the other hand, oilseeds are expected to fall by 3% following the 5% drop in soybeans, the areas sown having been reduced by 15% in the United States over the last two campaigns. The World Bank estimates that prices will be stable in 2020 after a 2% drop in 2019. The Robusta divorce The World Bank Drinks Index has remained rather stable since the start of the year (+0.4% ) and down almost one percent in the third quarter of 2018. But within the index, the situation between products was mixed. Over the whole of 2019, it should fall by 5% but increase by 2% in 2020. While cocoa prices fell by 2% in the third quarter, they have been fairly stable for 16 months because the record harvest in Côte d'Ivoire was offset by lower volumes in Ghana. This season, production is expected to rise by 2% and world prices are unlikely to change much, with a 2% rise expected by the World Bank next year.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

Robusta coffee prices plummeted by 11% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2018, in particular due to a 4% increase in supply. On the other hand, Arabica prices climbed 4% this third quarter and rose 5% compared to the same period last year. Indeed, the supply is expected to fall by 8%, the rains are expected to hamper next year's production in Brazil and the fall in the real against the dollar has pushed up coffee prices in Brazilian currency, which is impacting flux.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

The tumble in cotton It's a decline of 11% in the third quarter to a low in four years, and a plunge of 23% compared to a year ago for cotton. In question, an expected production increase of 4% to 26.8 Mt in 2019/20, with increases expected in most major production regions such as India, the United States and West Africa. . Faced with this, the World Bank estimates consumption at 26.5 Mt, which will inflate stocks, weigh even more on prices which are expected to fall by 16% over the year 2019 before recovering somewhat in 2020.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

Natural rubber tumbled 14% in the third quarter after seven straight months of gains. In question, the production of vehicles in Europe which has fallen. From January to August, global rubber production slipped 4% compared to the same period in 2018 and exports in the first half of the year fell 20% in Thailand and 13% in Indonesia. In 2019, prices are expected to rise by 5% and 4% in 2020.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2019

Zero growth in fertilizer use in China After two declining first quarters, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index lost another 4.2% in the third. Over the year, they should slip by 0.6% before climbing by 2.2% in 2020. The price of urea gained 2.9% in the third quarter as demand was strong, after a sharp fall in first semester. But over the year, it should lose 0.6% over the year before regaining 1.7% in 2020. This is the tumble for diammonium phosphate (DAP), whose prices should fall by 20.2% in 2019 and only increase by 3.3% in 2020. In September, prices were at their lowest in 10 years. The main reason is the persistent decline in consumption in China, the world's largest consumer, which is gradually implementing its policy of zero growth in the use of fertilizers. At the same time, production is increasing in Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Muriate of potash (MOP) prices remained stable in the third quarter after strong increases at the start of the year. In September, prices were 23.2% higher than levels at the start of the year, due to strong demand from Brazil and China.