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Economic growth: Standard and Poor's assigns “BB-/B” sovereign ratings to Côte d'Ivoire

12/07/2021
Categories: Economy/Forex

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S&P Global Ratings has assigned Côte d'Ivoire long and short-term sovereign credit ratings in foreign and local currencies "BB-/B" as of July 6, 2021. S&P's opinion is based on forecasts of 6% growth in Ivorian GDP in 2021, then 6.5% in the 2022-2024 interval.

The outlook is stable denoting the balance between expectations of strong economic growth, supported by improved policymaking supporting lower twin deficits in the coming years and, on the other hand, the risk of budgetary slippage and persistent socio-political tensions. Thus, the S&P Global Ratings agency notes that the elephant is sheltered from exogenous shocks thanks to its membership of the WAEMU zone, a robustness increased by the special BCEAO window for the refinancing of “COVID-19 Treasury bonds. Another factor taken into account is the implementation of continuous structural economic reforms, supported by the implementation of the third National Development Plan (PND), a five-year program, underpinning strong prospects for economic growth and budgetary consolidation. In light of the reforms, the budget deficit should return to below 3% by 2023.

According to S&P, external and government funding will likely decline, but will remain significant, given the large investment needs for key infrastructure and the narrow tax base, reflecting among other things the country's low GDP per capita of $2,313 in 2020. The country's economy is relatively diversified and dominated by services, which account for around 50% of real GDP. Over the past five years, the construction sector has expanded rapidly, reflecting infrastructure investment, accounting for almost 10% of real GDP in 2020, up from 5% in 2015. agriculture has fallen to less than 16% compared to 20% in 2015. More than 60% of agricultural production is exported. The country's main export is cocoa, which accounts for nearly 40% of the volume, followed by hydrocarbon and gold exports for 15% and 10% respectively, and cashew nuts for 6%.

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