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OF Morning Newsletter

05/07/2021
Categories: General Information

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European equity markets are expected to rise very slightly ahead of the PMI services indexes. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,084.31 points (+0.13%), the CAC 40 at 6,552.86 points (-0.01%), the DAX 30 at 15,650.09 points (+0.30%), the FTSE 100 at 7,123.27 points (-0.03%), the SMI at 11,964.84 points (-0.10%), the AEX at 733.55 points (+0.01%), the AEX at 733.55 points (+0.3%) 30%), the BEL 20 at 4,170.89 points (+0.11%), the IBEX 35 at 8,907.60 points (-0.28%), the DJIA at 34.786.35 points (+0.44%), the Nasdaq at 14,639.33 points (+0.81%), the S&P 500 at 4,352.34 points (+0.75%) and the Nikkei 225 at 28.626.24 points (-0.55%)

.

The change compared to the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD lost 1.1857 (-0.07%) while EUR/JPY gained 131.78 (+0.04%) and USD/JPY gained 111.15 (+0.11%).

Investors will pay attention to the final figures for the services PMI index in June on Monday. The first estimate, published by IHS Markit on 23 June, showed an index of 57.4 in June, the highest level since April 2018, compared to 56.6 in May. They will also track industrial production data in May

.

The main European equity markets are expected to open slightly higher on Monday morning, as investors await the final figures for the PMI indices for the eurozone and its member states in June. However, the trend could change rapidly, with the closure of American stock markets for the US National Day likely to weigh on trade volumes and markets awaiting the outcome of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia. At 7:40am, the CAC 40 futures contract gained 2 points, or 0.03%, according to data from the broker IG Markets. The DAX 30 contract picked up 1.9 points, or 0.01%, and the FTSE 100 contract advanced by 11 points, or 0.2%. The Eurozone services PMI is expected at 11:00. The first IHS Markit estimate, published on June 23, showed the index rebounding to 58 in June, a 41 month high, from 55.2 in May. The data provider then said that private sector activity in the eurozone had experienced its strongest growth in 15 years last month, thanks to the easing of health restrictions and the renewed confidence generated by vaccination campaigns

.

OPEC+ did not reach an agreement on Friday on its production quotas starting in August and will therefore meet this Monday at 15:00 to try to reach an agreement. While oil demand is rising in Europe and the United States after the lifting of most health restrictions, most Opep+ delegates were seeking to reach an agreement on increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day on Friday. The quotas would be increased every month until the end of 2022, thus making it possible to gradually erase the production cuts of 5.8 million barrels per day still in force. However, this draft agreement was rejected by the United Arab Emirates, according to Opep+ delegates

.

In Asia, major stock indexes fell on Monday after the Caixin China Services PMI reached its lowest growth rate in the last 14 months in June. The index stood at 50.3 last month, up from 55.1 in May, according to Caixin and IHS Markit. At the end of the session, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.2%, while the Nikkei and Hang Seng lost 0.6% each in Tokyo and Hong Kong respectively. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) ended up 0.4%, at 34.786.35 points, and the broader S&P 500 Index gained 0.8%, to 4,352.34 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.8% to 14,639.33 points

.

US Treasury bond yields fell on Friday, after the announcement of a rise in the unemployment rate but high job creation in the United States in June. The 10-year Treasury bond rate, the market benchmark, fell to 1.434% on Friday, its lowest level since March, as markets seemed to be retreating to more measured economic growth prospects across the

Atlantic.

The dollar rose slightly on Monday morning and could continue its momentum this week if the minutes of the mid-June meeting of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy committee confirm the restrictive reversal of the American central bank, according to the CBA. Details about when the Fed may reduce asset purchases could support the dollar, CBA says. The bank adds that economic indicators currently support the outperformance of the US economy compared to major economies, which could be a supportive factor for the greenback until the end of 2021. For its part, Capital Economics expects the dollar to continue to rise provided that American economic statistics remain robust.

Oil prices fell slightly on Monday morning, due to signs of disagreements within Opep+, ANZ reports. “Negotiations will resume on Monday after what will probably have been a weekend of frantic diplomatic talks,” the bank added. At 7:30am, the September North Sea Brent contract lost 8 cents to $76.09 per barrel, and the August WTI contract lost 3 cents to $75.13 per

barrel.
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