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OF Morning Newsletter

17/06/2021
Categories: General Information

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The Fed's more restrictive-than-expected announcements are expected to weigh on stocks. This Thursday, June 17, 2021, the Eurostoxx 50 posted a positive score of 4,151.76 points, up 0.20%, the CAC 40 opened at 6,652.65 points (+0.20%), but the DAX 30 fell by 0.12% to 15,710.57 points. The upward trend continued with the FTSE 100 at 7,184.95 points (0.17%), the SMI at 11,982.03 points (0.50%), the AEX at 733.50 points (0.34%) and the BEL 20 at 4,226.29 points (0.12%). The decline was recorded at the level of the IBEX 35, which forecasts 9,202.20 points (-0.31%), the DJIA to 34,033.67 points (-0.77%), the Nasdaq to 14,039.68 points (-0.24%), the S&P 500 to 4,223.70 points (-0.54%) and the Nikkei 225 to 29,006.19 points (-0.97%)

.

The change in exchange rates compared to the close in New York showed an increase of 0.02% for EUR/USD (1.1999), a decrease of 0.02% for EUR/JPY (132.79), and a fall of 0.04% for USD/JPY (110.68).

In France, McPhy is bringing its shareholders together for a general meeting this Thursday. On Wednesday evening, Vinci announced that it had won a “facility management” contract worth 491 million euros from the British Ministry of Defence. This seven-year contract, signed by Vinci Facilities UK Ltd, covers the management, maintenance, and upkeep of the grounds and equipment works of the Ministry of Defence buildings for the South-East region of the United Kingdom, the group said in a statement. The airport operator Groupe ADP indicated that its traffic grew by 5.7 million passengers in May 2021 compared to the same month of 2020. Airports managed by the group welcomed 6.3 million passengers last month. However, this figure represents only 21.2% of passenger traffic in May 2019, the company specified. The manufacturer of cryogenic membranes used for the transport of liquefied natural gas Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) has received an order from the Korean shipyard Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) to design the tanks of four new LNG carriers “on behalf of a European shipowner

”.

European equity markets are expected to open slightly lower on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) warned that the first interest rate hike in the United States could come sooner than expected. At 7:30am, the CAC 40 futures contract yielded 13 points, or 0.2%, according to data from the broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 30 fell by 36 points, or 0.2%, and the contract on the FTSE 100 lost 30 points, or 0.4%. The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday but signalled that it may begin withdrawing its economic support measures sooner than expected to take into account the progress of the recovery and the acceleration of inflation. The central bank has not changed its ultra-accommodative position at this point, but the majority of its members now believe that two rate hikes could occur in 2023. The updated forecasts show a federal funds rate of 0.6% at the end of 2023. When presenting their latest projections in March, central bankers estimated that key rates would be kept close to zero until 2024

.

The Fed raised its inflation forecasts on Wednesday after its monetary policy meeting, expecting prices excluding food and energy to rise by 3% this year, up from 2.2% previously. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast has also been raised to 7% for this year and remains unchanged, at 3.3%, for 2022. For the moment, the central bank intends to continue its asset purchases at the rate of 120 billion dollars per month until the page on the health crisis is definitively turned. At his traditional press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to reduce these purchases would depend on the pace of recovery and that any adjustments would be announced early in the market. After these announcements, Wall Street ended in decline on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 0.8%, to 34,033.67 points, and the S&P 500 expanded index lost 0.5%, to 4,223.70 points. The Nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, limited its decline to 0.2%, ending at 14,039.68

points.

Investors will remain focused on central banks, with monetary policy decisions by the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, and the Bank of Turkey all expected. They will be followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. On the economic indicators side, attention will focus on the final estimate of inflation in May in the euro zone and on weekly unemployment benefit claims in the United States. In Asia, markets are moving in scattered order after the Fed's announcements. In the wake of Wall Street, the Nikkei index lost 1% at the end of the session in Tokyo. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%.

U.S. Treasury bond yields stabilized on Thursday morning after recording their strongest one-session increase in three months the day before, due to the surprise caused by the Fed's rate projections for 2023. At 7:30 a.m., the yield on the ten-year bond, the market benchmark, stood at 1.58%, as on Wednesday evening. Before the Fed's announcements, it had been below the 1.50% threshold since June 9. Yields started climbing after the Fed's decision and continued to rise after Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had been above the expectations of the US central bank

.

The euro is trading little against the dollar on Thursday morning, after lowering the $1.20 threshold on Wednesday evening when the Fed indicated that it expected two increases in the federal funds rate in 2023. At 7.30 am, the single currency was trading at 1.1998 dollars, against 1.1997 on Wednesday evening and 1.2127 on Tuesday evening. According to the bank NAB, the average projection of two interest rate hikes in 2023 announced by Fed members, compared to none for this year in March, was a “restrictive surprise

.”

Oil contracts close on Thursday morning. The “surprisingly restrictive” tone of the Fed has led to an increase in the yield on US Treasuries and the dollar, OANDA points out, adding that a rebound in the greenback in the short term could be unfavorable to soft light crude (WTI) traded on Nymex. At 7:20 a.m., the August North Sea Brent contract lost 24 cents, at $74.15 per barrel, and the July WTI contract lost 21 cents, at $71.94 per barrel

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