The bank's foreign exchange position is at its annual low. According to Attijari Global Research (AGR), it fell, during the week from May 31 to June 04, to its annual low of -1.5 billion dirhams (MMDH). by the impact of the economic recovery on import flows, specifies the subsidiary of Attijariwafa Bank in its latest "MAD Insights", indicating that the spread between the reference rate of the dirham and its central rate is approaching its lower band and widened by 24.1 basis points (Pbs) to -4.41%.
The dirham is continuing its depreciation this week, adds the same source, noting that the USD/MAD parity is thus moving by +0.1% to 8.86 against 8.85 a week earlier. "This depreciation of the MAD is explained more by a basket effect of +0.35% against a market effect of -0.25%", according to AGR.
Analysts at the research firm recommend that dollar importers initiate hedging transactions to weather the continued volatility of the MAD. The Treasury has significantly increased the investments of its cash surpluses by 3.9 billion dirhams (MMDH) in one week, AGR also indicates. The average daily outstanding thus reached 13.9 billion dirhams, including 12.7 billion dirhams placed with reverse repo, specifies AGR in its “Hebdo Rates”.
Regarding the outlook, analysts maintained their scenario of a depreciation of the dirham against the dollar. Thus, the dirham would depreciate against the dollar by 0.1% and 0.3% over 1 and 2 months and stabilize at the current level over 3 months. The USD/MAD parity would thus reach 8.87, 8.89 and 8.86 at horizons of 1, 2 and 3 months. Against the euro, the dirham should fluctuate around the spot rate of 10.73 over the coming month before depreciating by 0.2% over the next two months to 10.75. Within 3 months, the EUR/MAD parity should reach 10.72, up 0.1% compared to the current level.