The pound follows the recovery of its economy but two obstacles are looming. Basically, the easing of pandemic restrictions is driving UK growth. The GBP/USD pair has resumed its upward trend, following the UK's reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor venues on April 12. Early data shows retail footfall increased 31% in the first week of reopening and is now at 75% of the same week in 2019.
The planned reopening depends on the trajectory of the virus, and in this respect the data is very encouraging. The seven-day average of new COVID infections and deaths has dropped. The pound against the dollar has made a 38.2% retracement of its last upward wave. A classic ratio that validates a simple correction of the uptrend.