After revoking Senegal's growth forecast of 0.6%, the IMF blocked the country's deficit,
forcing it to limit budget projections. Worse, he asks him for a second amending finance law
(Lfr), which is being drafted, savings of 250 billion and a price truth before any new
program with the country. Requirements which do not bode well for the populations and which smell good
a structural adjustment, in fast-tract mode.
The state is really hot at the coffers. Last June, the deputies had adopted a first Law of
amending finances 2019. An Lfr which devoted a considerable drop in the resources which have passed
from 4,071.77 billion CFA francs to 3,988.63 billion, a decrease of 83.14 billion in absolute value
and 2% in relative value. Three months later, the State will still have to tighten the belt and make
restrictions such as on the telephone bill, water and electricity of the administrations. Indeed, from sources
sure among donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), contacted officially who promised
to come back to us, and whose teams are in discussions with Finance technicians, requires above all
new program with the country a second amending finance law (Lfr). This, to revisit again
the decrease in the expected resources, make budgetary savings of at least 250 billion CFA francs
and raise the prices of certain commodities. What is, according to some senior officials
internationals of this institution of Bretton Woods, a "humiliation". This, even if he experienced an Lfr 2 in
2014, but it was to validate the increase in resources with the Emerging Senegal Plan 1 (Pse) which had just
to be acclaimed by the donor community.
According to some technical and financial partners, the Senegalese government may revise upwards
fuel prices that have led to others, the IMF finds this insufficient. And from reliable sources
Rue René Ndiaye x Avenue Carde, technicians from the Ministry of Finance are working on
this second amending finance law. "It's being drafted. And this Lfr 2 will have
dramatic consequences on the prices of certain consumer products which will explode and create
a lot of imbalances", explains a senior civil servant. Which reminds us that the aftermath of this great
period of consumption that is Tabaski will be very complicated. “This second Lfr will be furnished by
rectification mechanisms, with the inclusion of new chapters to provide resources for
new directions created. But it is rather to bog down public opinion since it is a real reframing
economic. And there are risks that it will soar in consumer prices. Because, the State will lift its
hand on some subsidies. Which is justified, basically, because there are major distortions with the
financial reality. Today, the state of public finances is such that it can no longer support these
subsidies. We are going to feel the repercussions of poor management of public finances", confides a
source having put his nose in the explanatory memorandum of this new Lfr.
Rejected growth rate
Alongside the downward revision of the government's forecasts, we are also told that the IMF has
blocked the country's deficit after shrinking the country's growth from 6.6% to 6%, according to its
the most optimistic predictions. An “enthusiasm” which risks being showered.
On the other hand, donor sources explain their sudden reluctance with Senegal by a
visibility problem. Because, the removal of the Pm post, explains a source, they understand it too much,
that is, there will be a third term or not. Just as the fact of having split the ministry of
Economy, Finance and Planning, while "the trend is towards consolidation in the administrations
public”. “In our perception, it is as if Senegal is changing policy, that it
would have another agenda," asks a senior international official. In any case, it seems plausible given
that donors have supported the Pse with more than 3 trillion in 2014, and supported its
pursuit. But, today, they should no longer be sure of anything with this repository, the second phase of which
raised more than 7 trillion last December, on the eve of the February 2019 presidential election .