The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed Nigeria into recession for the second time since 2016, threatening to push the 200 million people of Africa's largest economy further into poverty.

GDP in Africa's top oil producer contracted 3.62% in the third quarter, after already shrinking 6% in the previous quarter.

“Before the pandemic, the government was already unable to maintain the purchasing power of Nigerians,” Dominique Fruchter, economist at the French Foreign Trade Insurance Company (Coface) , told AFP.

The country is barely recovering from the oil shock which hit it very hard in 2016. And if growth resumed the following year, it had remained too weak to meet the needs of an ever-growing population. The youth unemployment rate has reached 40%.

Thus "the pandemic has accentuated the previous difficulties and Nigeria must now face the most severe recession recorded for decades", also notes Aurélien Mali, analyst for Africa at Moody's .

At the end of March, the authorities decreed a five-week confinement, a disaster for the majority of the population which depends on the informal economy to survive, but also for the middle class.

"I barely had enough to pay for my food and electricity," says Joseph Olaniyan, a French teacher in Abuja, whose activity resumed in October but is slowing down.

To the confinement, "was added the fall in oil prices", underlines Mr. Mali.

Crude prices dipped below $20 in April, and may have since climbed back to around $40, but the future remains bleak for a country that derives more than half of its income and 90% of its revenue oil export.

In addition to the drop in prices, "Nigerian oil production is decreasing", notes Benjamin Augé, Nigeria specialist at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri). "Part of the deposits have reached maturity and these are not compensated by enough large projects".

Thus, "at a time when the government should be supporting the economy, its income has dropped drastically," said Mr. Mali.

To cope, the state immediately reacted by devaluing the currency. But "this depreciation has further impoverished the populations, the prices of basic necessities often imported have increased, creating high inflation", adds the economist.

"With inflation, we have been hit twice," confirms Professor Olaniyan, who says transport prices have almost doubled.

Moreover, inflation was driven by higher food prices which increased by 17.3% in October.

"The bag of rice that we used to buy for 100 naira now costs 200 naira," said Edna Anidi, a mother of six who recently lost her job in the oil sector in the southeast.

The rise in prices is not new, however, and has been observed for more than a year.

In particular, the closure of borders with neighboring countries, decided in August 2019 by the authorities to stimulate local agricultural production.

Because since 2016, Abuja has been trying to diversify its economy, by imposing protectionist measures to develop more inclusive sectors of activity.

But until then, "the country will remain extremely dependent on its oil revenue", adds Mr. Mali. And unless we observe "a surge in prices, the country will take several years to emerge from this recession".

The government expects a return to growth by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021, according to Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed on Monday.

For analysts, this recession is a scourge: the country already holds the sad world record for the largest number of people living in extreme poverty.

The crisis "is expected to push an additional five million Nigerians into poverty in 2020", predicts the World Bank . This figure is added to the two million new poor already planned for this year.

The recession "will accentuate the frustrations of young people a little more", warns Mr. Mali.

In October, several thousand Nigerians demonstrated against police violence. The protest, which killed around 60 people according to Amnesty International , quickly turned into a broader movement against power.

The lack of future economic opportunity for these young people, made worse by the recession, is likely to lead to further protests, analysts warn.