Nordine Naam, currency strategist at Natixis

L'Agefi: You are one of the panellists who see the pound sterling falling. Are you already in the “no deal” scenario?

Nordine Naam: In fact, we favor a last-minute commercial agreement. While a rebound in the pound is possible in the very short term up to 0.88 against the euro, it should then weaken again towards 0.91 for several reasons. The economic conditions outside the European Union will however be less positive with a limited trade agreement, and constraints to be respected (State subsidies...). The country being the most affected in Europe by the epidemic, the tightening of restrictive measures (with a total reconfinement of Wales) will weigh heavily on the British economy. Such an environment could therefore encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to increase its asset purchase program and lower its key rates into negative territory, which would penalize the pound.

Why do you also see the dollar going down?

We expect the dollar to continue to correct once the uncertainties associated with the US presidential election pass, and to a lesser extent the epidemic in 2021. Fiscal stimulus plans in the US and Europe should eventually bring a certain lull in the markets, and support global growth, which will weigh on the dollar to the benefit of other major currencies, including the euro and the yen.