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Currencies: $ indifferent to US deficits or drop in unemployment

04/09/2020
Source : boursorama.com
Categories: Economy/Forex

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The turmoil shaking Wall Street, and more particularly the 'techno' compartment (with a Nadsaq losing up to -10.3% in 8 hours of 'continuous' quotations) hardly affects the Dollar which grabs a few fractions against the euro (+0.2% to 1.1830) as well as most currencies.

The greenback gained 0.15% against the yen at 106.35, +0.35% against the pound at 1.3235 and +0.6% against the Swiss franc at 0.9150.

The week ends with an increase of +0.8% against the Euro, it has now been stable since August 3, after a hot downside alert on Tuesday towards 1.2010/E which would have validated an exit from its long-term ascending channel (2011/2020) against the Euro.

As far as 'market movers' are concerned, the 19% surge in the US trade deficit in July (the worst score since March 2007) did not startle currency traders and they did not react to the publication of the 'NFP', the official US employment report for August which was the highlight of the week.

This NFP shows an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 8.4%.

The US economy generated 1.371 million non-farm payrolls last month (including 1.027 million in the private sector), slightly below the 1.5 million expected, but the unemployment rate fell dramatically by -1, 8% to 8.4%, against a consensus of 9.9%.

A plunge of almost -18% in August (this represents approximately 2 million people missing from the listings), this seems to be a miracle since an unemployment rate of 9.9% was anticipated -mechanically- on the basis of +1.5Mn of jobs... and there is a lack of more than 10%.

A change in the method of calculation has taken place (which was the case the day before for weekly unemployment) which excludes categories of 'temporary' unemployed, which the BLS indicates to subtract 230,000 civil servants recruited for a short mission: the annual census.

The Department of Labor, which publishes these monthly figures, adds that the rate of participation of the population in the labor market improved by only 0.3 points to 61.7% in August, which is completely inconsistent with unemployment rate fell to 8.4%

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