The health, economic and social crisis linked to the Covid pandemic threatens to interrupt regional integration in Africa and the redefinition of the link between the continent and the rest of the world.

The 21st century was to be the century of Africa. “The new year 2020 marks the start of a promising decade for Africa,” the Brookings Institution proclaimed in January. A century that was to see a redefinition of the relations of African countries with the rest of the world to move from dependence on development aid to partnership with the former colonial powers, China and the United States.

But Africa, before being itself violently affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, paid a heavy economic and social price for the health crisis with the closure of most major economies - European and American, even Chinese. - and the paralysis of transport.

The African Development Bank (ADB) thus anticipates a contraction of 1.7 to 3.4% in the gross domestic product of the 54 African countries. Nigeria, heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports, was very affected by the crisis, due to the fall in the price of the barrel, underlines Caroline Roussy, researcher at Iris (Institute of international and strategic relations).

The deepest recession in a quarter century

This contraction is already considered the strongest recession for at least a quarter of a century, said Vera Songwe, the executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, during a videoconference organized by AFD (Agence development French).

Some 50 million Africans could, according to the AfDB, sink into extreme poverty on a continent that already has 425 million people living below the poverty line (defined as less than $1.90 a day in power parity d 'purchase).

The risk is that this health and economic crisis will turn into a food crisis due to the heavy dependence on imports of foodstuffs such as rice. West Africa thus imports 5 million tonnes of white rice, while local production barely covers 60% of its needs. Prices, according to Caroline Roussy, could soar "and prefigure situations of famine in countries where, by colonial heritage, this cereal has imposed itself as a staple food".

Delayed regional integration

The crisis could also have unexpected geopolitical consequences and call into question the changes that have been taking place for several years.

Initially, according to the Director General of AFD, Rémy Rioux, in the face of the pandemic, Africa distinguished itself in the world by a coordinated response. But the movement towards deeper integration, particularly at the level of African regional institutions as promoted for years by the African Union, is in danger of fizzling out.

The effective implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (ZLEC) had to be delayed. The agreement for this African common market, which must eliminate customs duties for inter-African trade, had however been signed by the 54 African countries and ratified by 28. Hard first stroke of the penknife in the agreement: Nigeria, which had finally accepted with some reluctance to join the zone, decided to unilaterally close its borders to its neighbors, notes Caroline Roussy.

Debt moratorium

But there is another question. Will Africa be able to emerge from the health crisis without massive financial aid from outside? African finance ministers have called for a moratorium on external debts, and not debt cancellations like ten or fifteen years ago. Because, according to economist Vera Songwe, it is not a debt crisis, but a liquidity crisis largely due to the collapse of budgetary revenues. According to his estimates, it would take 100 billion dollars for the revival of the public sector in Africa, including 44 billion thanks to the debt moratorium, the rest being financed by the private sector. But who will be able to finance these amounts when remittances from the African diaspora have been greatly reduced?

The other major limit to integration is security. Africa is the scene of acts of extreme violence and still has to call on foreign troops, particularly French ones. But more than seven years after the French military intervention, Mali is nevertheless sinking into chaos and the "terrorist cancer" is metastasizing in West Africa, as Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou feared. And while the French army was welcomed in 2013, anti-French sentiment has grown with what some in Africa want to see as occupying forces.

The end of the CFA franc

This anti-French feeling was aggravated by the announcement at the end of December by President Emmanuel Macron of the abandonment of the CFA franc, and its forthcoming substitution by the eco, in reference to Ecowas (Economic Community of West Africa, in English). A shocking announcement. Some in Africa see “France as the breaker of Pan-Africanism”. Because, as Caroline Roussy points out, “the new narrative” between Africa and France gives the impression of being written… without the Africans. In the world after, it is more surely China, with its silk roads, which will restructure Africa's relations with the outside world.